没有人会因为承认自己“不知道市场接下来会怎样“而破产。但很多人因为假装知道而破产。

No one has ever gone bankrupt from admitting they don't know what the market will do next. But many have gone bankrupt from pretending they do.

宏观经济机器虽然复杂，但理解它的只有几个简单齿轮：生产率、短期债务周期和长期债务周期。

The economic machine, though complex, is driven by just a few simple gears: productivity, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle.

我不关心我对市场的看法，我只关心市场对事件的反应。

I do not care about my view of the market; I only care about how the market reacts to events.

第一层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，买它。”第二层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，但所有人都知道它是好公司了，所以价格已经太高了——卖它。”