市场认知
关于市场本质、周期、波动
共 249 条名言
当潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳。
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
股市下跌就像科罗拉多一月的暴风雪一样寻常，如果你有准备，它不会伤害你。
A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared, it can't hurt you.
重要的不是你做对或做错了，而是你做对时赚了多少，做错时亏了多少。
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
不要在干草堆中找针，把整个干草堆买下来。
Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!
股票市场充斥着知道一切的价格但不知道任何东西的价值的人。
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
华尔街没有新事物。因为投机像山丘一样古老。
There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.
市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
股市下跌就像科罗拉多一月的暴风雪一样寻常，如果你有准备，它不会伤害你。
A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared, it can't hurt you.
华尔街没有新事物。因为投机像山丘一样古老。
There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.
对待价格波动的正确态度是所有成功投资的试金石。
The correct attitude toward price fluctuations is the touchstone of successful investing.
远比试图预测市场时机更有效的方法是，找到被低估的好公司。
Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.
世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。
The history of economic is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies.
市场永远处于不确定和波动之中，通过押注出乎意料的事物来赚钱。
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
在投资中，和在生活中一样，很少有确定的事情，价值可以消失，预测可以落空。
In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things.
赚大钱不在于单个股票的波动，而在于对大势的判断。
The big money is not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements.
市场行为越愚蠢，企业投资者的机会就越大。
The more foolish the market's behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business investor.
我从不试图去预测市场，我只需要在好公司便宜时买入。
I never try to predict the market. All I need to do is buy good companies when they are cheap.
我不和40岁以下的人讨论价值投资——不是因为他们不聪明，而是因为他们还没经历过一轮完整的牛熊。
I don't discuss value investing with anyone under 40 — not because they're not smart, but because they haven't lived through a full cycle.
宏观经济预测不会让你赚钱。如果你把所有经济学家首尾相连排成一条线，他们还是指不出方向。
Macroeconomic predictions won't make you money. If you laid all the economists end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.
投资成功的秘诀在于：当价格远低于内在价值时买入，其他时间什么都不做。
The secret to investment success is to buy when prices are far below intrinsic value and do nothing the rest of the time.
投资者和投机者之间最根本的区别，在于他们对待市场波动的态度：投资者利用波动，投机者被波动利用。
The fundamental difference between investors and speculators is their attitude toward market fluctuations. The investor uses them; the speculator is used by them.
不要因为一只股票涨了就觉得它好，也不要因为它跌了就觉得它差——价格不是质量，只是别人的情绪。
Don't think a stock is good because it went up, or bad because it went down. Price is not quality — it's just someone else's mood.
市场就像一位商业伙伴，他每天都会告诉你一个价格，要么买你的股份，要么卖给你他的股份——你不必每天回应他。
The market is like a business partner who offers you a price every day — you don't have to respond to him every day.
不要试图预测经济走向。你只需要找到那些不管经济好还是不好，人们都需要的东西。
Don't try to predict the economy. Just find things people need whether the economy is good or bad.
历史不会简单地重复，但人性会——投资中最可靠的规律就是人会一再犯同样的错误。
History doesn't repeat itself, but human nature does. The most reliable pattern in investing is that people make the same mistakes over and over.
市场就像一个巨大的实验室，所有人都在里面做实验，但没有人知道实验的结果——因为实验者本身就在改变结果。
The market is a giant laboratory where everyone is experimenting, but no one knows the outcome — because the experimenters themselves are changing the results.
成功的投资不是靠预测未来，而是靠识别当下的错误定价——当市场因为恐惧或贪婪而偏离理性时，就是你的机会。
Successful investing is not about predicting the future, but identifying mispricing in the present — when fear or greed pushes the market away from rationality.
大多数人犯的最大错误，是把过去当成未来的指南——但市场是一个不断自我进化的系统。
The biggest mistake most people make is using the past as a guide to the future — but the market is a constantly evolving system.
我们永远不知道未来会走向何方，但我们应该知道自己站在哪里——在市场周期中所处的位置比预测方向重要一百倍。
We may never know where we're going, but we should know where we are. Our position in the market cycle matters far more than predicting the direction.
当所有人都认为某件事没有风险时，那才是风险最大的时候——因为价格里已经没有任何'恐惧'的折扣了。
When everyone believes something is risk-free, that's when risk is highest — because the price no longer contains any discount for fear.
我们永远无法精确知道风险在哪，但我们可以知道什么时候风险'不值那个价'——然后站在一旁什么都不做。
We can never know exactly where risks lie, but we can know when risks aren't being priced properly — and then stand aside and do nothing.
当市场出现危机、所有人都在恐慌出逃时，关闭你的交易软件。你不需要做什么，你只需要不做什么。
When the market is in crisis and everyone is panicking, close your trading app. You don't need to do anything — you just need to not do anything.
投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'——这四个字摧毁的财富比任何市场崩盘都多。
The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time is different.' These four words have destroyed more wealth than any market crash.
给我看激励，我就告诉你结果。
Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.
市场先生是你的仆人，不是你的向导。
Mr. Market is your servant, not your guide.
投资者为防范市场回调所做的准备所损失的钱，比市场回调本身造成的损失还要多。
Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.
市场总是错的。
Markets are always wrong.
情况越糟糕，扭转局面所需的努力就越少，上行空间就越大。
如果我做一笔交易，必须先有一个假设，然后市场会告诉我这个假设是对是错。
靠水晶球谋生的人，注定要吃碎玻璃。
He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.
投资中最危险的话就是：'这次不一样。'
最重要的不是买什么，而是什么时候买。
你不能预测，但你可以准备。
You can't predict, but you can prepare.
第二层次思维：第一层次思维说这是一家好公司买吧；第二层次思维说这是一家好公司但人人都知道所以股价可能已经太高了卖吧。
风险不是波动性，风险是永久性损失的可能性。
股市上充满了这样的人：他们知道所有东西的价格，但对价值一无所知。
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
不要在干草堆里找针，直接买下整个干草堆！
Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!
投资中残酷的讽刺是：我们投资者作为一个整体，得到的回报恰好是扣除费用之后的市场回报——不多不少。
投资的四个维度：回报、风险、成本、时间。大多数投资者只看第一个。
持有现金在牛市中看起来像放弃机会，在熊市中却是最宝贵的资产。
股市是一个将金钱从不耐烦的人手中转移到耐心的人手中的装置。
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
市场短期是一台投票机，但长期是一台称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
投资者最大的敌人不是股市，而是他自己。
The investor's chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.
试图预测市场时机的人是傻瓜。据我所知，没有人能持续准确地做到这一点。
Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.
重要的不是你对或错，而是你对的时候赚多少，错的时候亏多少。
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
投资中最具破坏性的情感不是恐惧，而是对错失机会的焦虑。
The most destructive emotion in investing is not fear, but the anxiety of missing out on opportunities.
你需要学会和不确定性共舞，而不是试图消除它。
He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.
历史总是在重复，因为人性从未改变。
History repeats itself because human nature never changes.
我们可能不知道未来会走向哪里，但我们可以知道我们现在处于什么位置。
We may never know where we're going, but we'd better have a good idea where we are.
投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'。
The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'.
当好得难以置信的时候，通常就是不可信的。
When something is too good to be true, it probably is.
你投资的是企业的未来收益，而不是市场的情绪波动。
Stock returns are driven by investment return — dividend yield and earnings growth — and speculative return.
大多数投资者最大的错误在于把价格当作价值的指标，而不是利用价格偏离价值的机会。
The prevailing view is that the market is efficient. I disagree. The market is often inefficient, and it is the exploitation of these inefficiencies that provides the returns.
投资的本质不是预测未来，而是为不确定的未来做准备。
Investing is the discipline of relative selection. It is about the process of identifying undervalued securities, not forecasting the future.
我们从来不因为宏观经济的预测而买入或卖出一家企业。宏观经济变量太多，没有人能持续预测准确。
We don't buy or sell based on macroeconomic predictions. There are too many variables.
人们计算得太多，思考得太少。在投资中，方向比精确更重要，逻辑比数字更值钱。
People calculate too much and think too little.
如果你想说服别人，诉求于利益比诉求于理性更有效。理解人性是投资中最被低估的技能。
If you want to persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.
华尔街有一条铁律：如果每个人都喜欢某样东西，那么你最好避开它。大众的一致看好往往是泡沫的信号。
The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.
过去的投资记录，无论多么辉煌，都不能保证未来的表现。尤其是在市场风格切换时，历史收益往往是最危险的陷阱。
The fact that a security has risen in price or has paid a large dividend is not evidence of its investment merit.
不要追逐最热门的行业中最热门的股票。当一只股票连出租车司机都在推荐的时候，买点已经过去了。
Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon. By the time you hear about the hottest stock from your barber, it's too late.
泡沫通常不是从外部被人捅破的，而是从内部因为自身逻辑崩溃而塌陷的。
Bubbles don't burst from the outside. They collapse from within when the narrative sustaining them breaks down.
金融市场绝不是教科书上描述的那种均衡系统，它是一个永远处于非均衡状态的复杂自适应系统。
Financial markets are not the equilibrium systems described in textbooks. They are complex adaptive systems, always in a state of disequilibrium.
趋势是你的朋友，直到它拐弯的那一秒钟。追随趋势赚钱容易，难的是在趋势结束前离场。
The trend is your friend until the end when it bends. Making money by following the trend is easy; the hard part is getting out before it reverses.
我总是在寻找自我强化的过程——当价格上升吸引了更多买家，而更多买家又推动了价格上升。这就是趋势的本质。
I'm always looking for self-reinforcing processes — where rising prices attract more buyers, and more buyers push prices higher. That is the essence of trends.
短期债务周期通常持续5到8年，长期债务周期则持续50到75年。大多数人只经历过一个长周期的一半。
Short-term debt cycles typically last 5-8 years, while long-term debt cycles last 50-75 years. Most people have only lived through half of one long cycle.
在投资中，好消息不一定是好投资——如果市场已经提前消化了所有好消息，买入反而会亏钱。
In investing, good news doesn't necessarily mean a good investment. If the market has already priced in all the good news, buying can still lose you money.
风险不是波动率，风险是发生永久性资本损失的可能性。教科书上用标准差衡量风险是完全错误的。
Risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent capital loss. Using standard deviation to measure risk is fundamentally wrong.
在周期的顶部，最容易做的事情往往最危险；在周期的底部，最不敢做的事情往往最有利可图。敢于逆势需要极大的勇气。
At the top of a cycle, the easiest things to do are the most dangerous. At the bottom, the hardest things to do are the most profitable. Contrarian courage is rare and valuable.
你不能预测未来，但你可以为未来做准备。我不需要知道暴风雨何时来，我只需要确保我的船能承受任何风浪。
You can't predict the future, but you can prepare for it. I don't need to know when the storm is coming. I just need to make sure my ship can weather any storm.
如果你整天盯着市场报价，你几乎一定会做出糟糕的决策。短期的噪音会淹没有价值的长期信号。
If you watch the market tick by tick, you are almost guaranteed to make bad decisions. Short-term noise drowns out valuable long-term signals.
整个基金行业的结构性问题在于：基金经理通过管理别人的钱变得富有，而投资者承担了全部的风险和大部分的费用。
The structural problem of the entire fund industry is this: fund managers get rich by managing other people's money, while investors bear all the risk and most of the costs.
将投资视为一种概率游戏而非确定性游戏。你不需要每次都对，你只需要在概率站在你这边时下重注。
View investing as a game of probabilities, not certainties. You don't need to be right every time; you just need to bet heavily when the odds are in your favor.
永远不要混淆运气和技能。在牛市中，每只猴子都是股神。只有潮水退去，才能分辨谁穿了泳裤。
Never confuse luck with skill. In a bull market, every monkey is a stock market genius. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
股票市场短期是投票机，长期是称重机，最终会反映公司的内在价值。
In the short run the market is a voting machine, in the long run a weighing machine. It will ultimately reflect the intrinsic value of companies.
不要试图在最低点买入，在最高点卖出，这是投资者的致命错误。
Do not try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top; that is a fatal mistake for investors.
市场先生的情绪不应该影响你的投资决策，你应该利用他的情绪。
Mr. Markets emotions should not affect your investment decisions; you should exploit his emotions.
长期来看，股票市场的回报与公司的盈利增长是一致的。
In the long run, stock market returns are consistent with company earnings growth.
股票市场会在你需要钱的时候恰恰下跌。
The stock market will decline just when you need money.
我不认为自己是一个投资者，我是一个试图发现市场错误定价的人。
I do not think of myself as an investor; I am someone trying to discover market mispricing.
市场总是错误的，因为参与者的认知是有偏见的。
Markets are always wrong because participants perceptions are biased.
趋势是你的朋友，除非趋势反转。
The trend is your friend until the trend reverses.
我寻找的是极端的失衡，而不是小幅的偏差。
I look for extreme disequilibrium, not small deviations.
当你发现趋势正在形成时，不要过早地逆势而行。
When you find a trend forming, do not be too early to go against it.
在金融市场上，最重要的不是预测，而是适应。
In financial markets, the most important thing is not prediction, but adaptation.
我的投资哲学基于一个简单的观点：人们对现实的看法总是有偏差的。
My investment philosophy is based on a simple idea: peoples perceptions of reality are always biased.
金融市场是非理性的，这种非理性是可以预测的。
Financial markets are irrational, and this irrationality is predictable.
不要试图战胜市场，要学会利用市场的错误。
Do not try to beat the market; learn to exploit market mistakes.
趋势反转的信号是当所有人都站在同一边时。
The signal of a trend reversal is when everyone is on the same side.
金融市场的历史是一部谎言和假象的历史。
The history of financial markets is a history of lies and falsehoods.
我不关心我对市场的看法，我只关心市场对事件的反应。
I do not care about my view of the market; I only care about how the market reacts to events.
在市场上，钱是从恐慌者手中转移到自信者手中的。
In the market, money transfers from panickers to the confident.
趋势开始时很温和，结束时很剧烈。
Trends start gentle and end violently.
金融市场是一个巨大的实验室，测试你的理论。
Financial markets are a huge laboratory testing your theories.
不要和市场作对，要学会顺势而为。
Do not fight the market; learn to go with the flow.
市场的极端行为往往孕育着反转的机会。
Extreme market behavior often breeds opportunities for reversal.
市场永远不会直线上升或下降，它总是曲折前进。
The market never rises or falls in a straight line; it always moves zigzag.
我从不根据预感做交易，我根据市场信号做交易。
I never trade on hunches; I trade on market signals.
市场的记忆是短暂的，这创造了重复的机会。
The markets memory is short, which creates repeated opportunities.
金融市场是一个复杂的自适应系统。
Financial markets are complex adaptive systems.
我寻找的是那些有自我强化趋势的市场。
I look for markets that have self-reinforcing trends.
市场先生的情绪可以在短期内推动价格远离价值。
Mr. Markets emotions can push prices far from value in the short term.
我相信任何事情都有循环，成功的关键是顺应这些循环。
I believe everything has cycles, and the key to success is to go with these cycles.
理解历史和经济周期可以帮助你做出更好的投资决策。
Understanding history and economic cycles can help you make better investment decisions.
理解债务周期是理解经济的关键。
Understanding the debt cycle is the key to understanding the economy.
我建立桥水不是为了赚钱，而是为了理解经济运作的原理。
I built Bridgewater not to make money, but to understand how the economy works.
不要把未来简单地从过去推断，因为情况会变化。
Do not extrapolate the future simply from the past because situations change.
理解经济的运作原理是投资成功的基础。
Understanding how the economy works is the foundation of investment success.
理解政治和经济之间的互动是预测未来的关键。
Understanding the interaction between politics and economics is the key to predicting the future.
理解债务和货币的运作原理是理解经济危机的关键。
Understanding how debt and money work is the key to understanding economic crises.
市场价格已经反映了大多数人的共识。
Market prices already reflect the consensus of most people.
投资的成功取决于你做得比市场更好，而不只是与市场一致。
Investment success depends on you doing better than the market, not just matching it.
市场的周期性是不可避免的，关键是知道我们在周期中的位置。
Market cyclicality is inevitable; the key is knowing where we are in the cycle.
在市场顶部时保持谦虚，在市场底部时保持贪婪。
Stay humble at market tops and greedy at market bottoms.
理解周期可以帮助你避免在顶部买入，在底部卖出。
Understanding cycles can help you avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom.
理解市场的钟摆特性可以帮助你做出更好的投资决策。
Understanding the pendulum nature of markets can help you make better investment decisions.
在市场繁荣时要想到风险，在市场萧条时要想到机会。
Think about risk when the market is booming, and think about opportunities when the market is depressed.
在市场顶部时，风险最大，回报最小。
At market tops, risk is highest and returns are smallest.
在投资中，过度反应是人性的一部分。
In investing, overreaction is part of human nature.
不要试图战胜市场，市场就是市场。
Do not try to beat the market; the market is the market.
基金行业的商业模式是建立在投资者亏钱的基础上的。
The mutual fund industry business model is built on investors losing money.
指数基金的革命性在于它承认你无法战胜市场。
The revolution of index funds lies in its acknowledgment that you cannot beat the market.
基金持有人的最大敌人是基金业本身。
The biggest enemy of fund holders is the fund industry itself.
投资的回报来自于经济增长和企业盈利，而不是基金经理的能力。
Investment returns come from economic growth and corporate earnings, not from fund managers abilities.
主动管理基金的失败是系统性、结构性的，不是偶然的。
The failure of active fund management is systemic and structural, not accidental.
不要相信那些声称能够战胜市场的基金经理。
Do not believe fund managers who claim they can beat the market.
投资的真谛是承担市场风险，获得市场回报。
The essence of investing is taking market risk to get market returns.
不要试图在时机的选择上浪费时间，没有人有这个能力。
Do not waste time trying to time the market; no one has that ability.
基金行业的营销部门往往比投资部门更强大。
The mutual fund industry marketing department is often more powerful than the investment department.
在一个竞争激烈的市场中，战胜市场是不可能的。
In a highly competitive market, beating the market is impossible.
在一个完全有效的市场中，指数基金是最优选择。
In a perfectly efficient market, index funds are the optimal choice.
投资者应该抵制住追逐热门基金的诱惑。
Investors should resist the temptation to chase hot funds.
长期来看，主动管理基金几乎总是输给被动指数基金。
In the long run, active funds almost always lose to passive index funds.
不要被基金的过去业绩所迷惑。
Do not be fooled by a funds past performance.
基金行业的秘密是：它为投资者创造的价值远低于它收取的费用。
The mutual fund industry secret is: it creates far less value for investors than the fees it charges.
不要相信那些声称能够预测市场的顾问。
Do not believe advisors who claim to be able to predict the market.
基金行业收取的费用远超过它提供的价值。
The mutual fund industry charges far more than the value it provides.
投资者应该相信市场，而不是相信基金经理。
Investors should believe in the market, not in fund managers.
投资者应该避免追逐过去业绩最好的基金。
Investors should avoid chasing funds with the best past performance.
投资的本质是获得经济增长带来的收益。
The essence of investing is to obtain returns from economic growth.
市场永远不会错，只有市场参与者的看法会错。
The market is never wrong; only market participants views can be wrong.
在市场确认趋势之前，不要急于行动。
Before the market confirms the trend, do not rush to act.
时机就是一切。
Timing is everything.
在市场开始上涨之前，价格已经在底部徘徊很久了。
Before the market starts rising, prices have been hovering at the bottom for a long time.
不要试图猜测市场将要做什么，而是等待市场告诉你。
Do not try to guess what the market will do; wait for the market to tell you.
在股票市场上，没有人能赢过所有的人。
In the stock market, no one can beat everyone.
跟随趋势交易，直到趋势反转。
Follow the trend until the trend reverses.
亏损的原因往往是过早地买入或卖出。
The cause of losses is often buying or selling too early.
在市场确认方向之前保持观望。
Stay on the sidelines until the market confirms direction.
在交易中，最重要的不是买什么，而是什么时候买。
In trading, the most important thing is not what to buy, but when to buy.
不要试图抄底或逃顶。
Do not try to pick bottoms or tops.
市场的行为是由人性决定的。
Market behavior is determined by human nature.
永远不要逆势交易。
Never trade against the trend.
交易的艺术在于知道什么时候持有，什么时候卖出。
The art of trading is knowing when to hold and when to sell.
在投机市场，没有什么是确定的。
In the speculative market, nothing is certain.
市场趋势一旦形成，往往会持续一段时间。
Once a market trend forms, it tends to continue for some time.
市场的记忆是短暂的，机会会不断重复。
The markets memory is short; opportunities keep repeating.
市场的波动创造了盈利的机会。
Market volatility creates profit opportunities.
历史会重复，但会以你想象不到的方式。
History repeats, but in ways you cannot imagine.
最大的投资错误往往来自于试图预测宏观经济。
The biggest investment mistakes often come from trying to predict the macro economy.
价值投资者应该学会利用市场的情绪波动。
Value investors should learn to exploit market emotional fluctuations.
价值投资者不应该试图预测市场时机。
Value investors should not try to predict market timing.
价值投资者应该学会利用市场的非理性。
Value investors should learn to exploit market irrationality.
平常心就是回到事物的本质去思考问题。
An ordinary mind means going back to the essence of things when you think.
我从来没见过一个能持续预测市场走势的人。
I have never met anyone who could consistently predict market trends.
金融业本质上是销售业务：股票经纪人的实际价值等于零。
The finance industry is essentially a sales business; brokers' real value is zero.
投资并不难。难的是它不像看起来那么简单。
Investing is not that hard. The problem is that it is not as simple as it looks.
通货膨胀是政府偷偷掠夺人民财富的方式。
Inflation is the government's sneaky way to rob the people.
如果你想要说服别人，要诉诸利益，而非诉诸理性。
If you would persuade, appeal to interest and not to reason.
宏观是我们必须接受的，微观才是我们能有所作为的。
Macro is what we must accept, micro is what we can do something about.
投资是艺术，不是科学。那些受过严格量化训练的人，在投资上往往有劣势。
Investing is an art, not a science. People who have been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage.
如果你花13分钟研究宏观经济，你就浪费了10分钟。
If you spend more than 13 minutes a year on economic forecasting, you've wasted 10 minutes.
经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富，就要认清假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出。
Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies.
把系统当作机器来理解，找出其中的因果关系，然后你就可以预测它未来的行为。
Think of the economy as a machine, understand the cause-effect relationships, and you can predict what it will do.
我们可能永远不知道要去哪里，但最好知道我们现在在哪里。
We may never know where we're going, but we'd better know where we are.
最危险的事情是认为没有风险。
The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there is no risk.
在投资中，做正确的事情和赚钱之间没有必然联系。
There's no necessary connection between being right and making money in investing.
投资简单，但并不容易。
Investing is simple, but not easy.
不要让完美的投资计划成为良好计划的敌人。
Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
大多数投资者无法区分概率和结果。
Most investors can't distinguish between probabilities and outcomes.
流动性不是免费的——当你想卖的时候，别人也想卖。
Liquidity is not free. When you want to sell, everyone else wants to sell too.
股票不仅仅是一个交易代码或电子信号，它是一家企业的部分所有权。
A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business.
如果投机者最终都赚不到钱，那投机本身就不会存在了。但事实是所有人都相信自己会是例外。
If all speculators lost money, speculation would disappear. But everyone thinks they will be the exception.
数学是投资中最好的仆人，却是最坏的主人。
Mathematics is the best servant but the worst master in investing.
不要因为一家公司的股价曾经到过50元就在它跌到10元时认为便宜。
Do not think a stock is cheap at 10 just because it was once at 50.
在股市中，重要的不是你知道什么，而是你知道的东西中有多少是正确的。
In the stock market, it's not what you know that matters — it's how much of what you know is actually right.
不要试图预测股市的走向——没人做得到，那些声称能做到的人在骗你或者骗自己。
Don't try to predict the direction of the stock market. Nobody can do it, and those who claim they can are lying to you or to themselves.
公司盈利和股价之间的关联，在短期像一根橡皮筋——可以拉得很远，但最终会弹回来。
The relationship between earnings and stock prices is like a rubber band — it can stretch far, but eventually it snaps back.
一旦我们意识到人类认知在塑造事件中扮演的角色，我们就发现了一个全新的世界。
Once we realize the role that human cognition plays in shaping events, we discover a whole new world.
泡沫不是由估值驱动的，而是由叙事驱动的。
Bubbles are not driven by valuations but by narratives.
金融市场远非均衡状态，它是一个由恐惧和贪婪交替主导的巨兽。
Financial markets are far from equilibrium; they are a monster driven by alternating fears and greed.
进化是宇宙中最强大的力量，也是唯一永恒的东西。
Evolution is the single greatest force in the universe; it is the only thing that is permanent.
宏观经济机器虽然复杂，但理解它的只有几个简单齿轮：生产率、短期债务周期和长期债务周期。
The economic machine, though complex, is driven by just a few simple gears: productivity, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle.
投资者把大部分时间花在担心股价上，而不是去了解他买的那些公司到底在做什么。
Investors spend most of their time worrying about stock prices instead of trying to understand what the companies they own actually do.
市场收益是免费的午餐，但想通过择时来吃得更多，大多数人反而连免费的午餐都丢了。
Market returns are a free lunch, but by trying to time the market to eat more, most people end up losing even the free lunch.
当一家公司的股价跌了50%，和我没有关系。有关系的是这家公司的价值是否也跌了50%。
If a company's stock price drops 50%, it doesn't matter to me. What matters is whether the company's value also dropped 50%.
我宁愿大致正确，也不要精确地错误。
I'd rather be approximately right than precisely wrong.
如果你在投资中需要一个计算器来算到小数点后两位，那你大概率已经走错了方向。
If you need a calculator to compute to two decimal places in investing, you're probably already heading in the wrong direction.
如果你的投资顾问给你推荐了一只他本人没有买的基金——把门打开请他出去。
If your investment advisor recommends a fund he doesn't own personally — open the door and show him out.
我的哲学不是预测未来——而是识别当前被普遍接受的错误共识。
My philosophy isn't about predicting the future — it's about identifying the currently accepted false consensus.
我一直在寻找某样东西的定价里有没有隐含一个逻辑上的不可能——如果有那我就找到了交易。
I'm always looking for whether the pricing of something contains a logical impossibility — if it does, I've found my trade.
我的基金叫量子基金——因为量子物理学教会我一个道理：观测行为会改变被观测的对象。在金融市场上投资者的预期会改变市场本身。
My fund is called Quantum Fund because quantum physics taught me one thing: the act of observation changes what is being observed. In financial markets, investors' expectations change the market itself.
市场不是一台计算器——它是一个由几百万个情绪不稳定的人在相互报价的集合。
The market is not a calculator — it's a collection of millions of emotionally unstable people quoting prices to each other.
没有人会因为承认自己“不知道市场接下来会怎样“而破产。但很多人因为假装知道而破产。
No one has ever gone bankrupt from admitting they don't know what the market will do next. But many have gone bankrupt from pretending they do.
金融服务业每年从美国投资者口袋里拿走了大约5000亿美元——这不是服务的价格而是财富转移的规模。
The financial services industry takes roughly 500 billion dollars from American investors' pockets every year — that's not the price of service, that's the scale of wealth transfer.
你从投资中得到的回报是市场回报减去你支付的成本——但这个减法从来不是你想象的那个数字。
Your return from investing is the market return minus the costs you pay — but that subtraction is never the number you imagine.
过去五十年来我没有见过任何人能持续准确地预测市场——但我见过成千上万的人因为尝试预测市场而赔了钱。
In the past fifty years, I haven't seen anyone who could consistently predict the market accurately — but I've seen thousands who lost money trying.
股价短期跟着情绪跑，长期跟着业绩走；别把情绪的波动当成公司的价值。
Short-term prices chase sentiment; long-term they follow earnings. Don't mistake mood swings for a company's value.
我不预测宏观，宏观太复杂，我也没那个本事。
I don't forecast the macro; it's too complex and beyond my ability.
市场一片恐慌时，机会往往也在那里；但前提是你要先看懂它为什么跌。
When the market panics, opportunity is often there too—but only if you first understand why it fell.
平常心看待涨跌，涨不喜跌不悲，回到生意本身。
View rises and falls with an ordinary mind—no joy in ups, no sorrow in downs—and return to the business itself.
我很少做短线，因为短线是在和确定性作对。
I rarely trade short-term, because short-term trading fights against certainty.
市场的报价是别人的情绪，你可以利用它，但别听它的命令。
The market's quote is someone else's mood; you may use it, but don't take orders from it.
如果历史就能让人致富，那最富有的人该是图书管理员。
If past history was all that was needed to be a successful investor, the richest people would be librarians.
我们从历史中学到的，就是人们从不吸取历史的教训。
What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history.
一匹能数到十的马，是匹了不起的马——但不是了不起的数学家。
A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse—not a remarkable mathematician.
预测能告诉你很多关于预测者的事，却对未来的事一无所知。
Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.
股市预测师唯一的价值，就是让算命先生显得靠谱。
The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.
市场像上帝，只帮助那些自助的人。
The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.
如果市场总是有效的，我早就沦落街头拿着破杯子要饭了。
I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.
在金融里，要特别警惕用过去业绩做的“证明”。
Beware of past performance proofs in finance.
我们从不根据报纸头条做买卖。
We never buy or sell based on newspaper headlines.
市场是为你服务的，不是来指挥你的。
The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you.
市场是在不可持续的乐观与不合理的悲观之间摆动的钟摆。
The market is a pendulum swinging between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.
如果你的决策建立在市场昨天做了什么上，你不是在投资，是在投机。
If your decision is based on what the market did yesterday, you're not investing, you're speculating.
我不在乎市场是涨是跌，我在乎的是是否在合理价格买到了好企业。
I don't care whether the market goes up or down; I care whether I'm buying a good business at a fair price.
我们愿意显得无聊，因为热闹的地方往往最贵。
We're willing to look boring, because the lively places are usually the most expensive.
我不会花一秒钟去预测利率或股市的走向。我甚至不知道下周、下个月、甚至明年股市会怎样。
I dont spend a second trying to predict interest rates or the stock market.
市场波动不是你的敌人，而是你的朋友——前提是你能控制自己不在情绪低落时割肉。
Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy.
嫉妒是七宗罪里唯一一个你永远无法从中获得任何乐趣的罪。因为嫉妒别人，你只会痛苦，而别人毫发无伤。
Envy is the only one of the seven deadly sins that is no fun at all.
把市场想象成一个叫市场先生的合伙人。他每天都跑来给你报价，有时兴高采烈地出高价，有时垂头丧气地出低价。
Imagine that in some private business you own a small share. One of your partners named Mr. Market is very obliging indeed.
如果你花13分钟分析宏观经济和市场走势，你就浪费了10分钟。
If you spend 13 minutes analyzing the economy and the market you have wasted 10 minutes.
市场总是错的。它的偏见和趋势就是投资者的机会——你需要在趋势被大众察觉之前发现它。
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux.
一旦我们意识到我们的理解具有固有的不完美性，我们就拥有了真正有用的知识。
Once we realize that our understanding is inherently imperfect we have true knowledge.
如果你想成为一个成功的投资者，你必须独立思考。共识通常都是错的，你必须逆着人群的方向走。
To be a successful investor you have to bet against the consensus and be right.
历史总是在押韵——每一件正在发生的事，都曾在历史上以稍微不同的方式发生过。
History does not repeat itself but it rhymes.
第一层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，买它。”第二层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，但所有人都知道它是好公司了，所以价格已经太高了——卖它。”
人群集体癫狂抢购时，往往是理性投资者该安静离场的时候；人群绝望抛售时，反而是该出手捡便宜的时机。
When the crowd is maniaically buying is often when the rational investor should quietly step aside; when they despair and sell is when bargains appear.
也许我们永远不知道我们明天会去哪里，但我们必须非常清楚我们现在在哪里。知道你在周期中的位置，比预测下一阶段什么时候到来重要得多。
We may never know where we're going tomorrow, but we must be crystal clear about where we are now. Knowing your position in the cycle is far more important than predicting when the next phase will arrive.