我认为最危险的偏见是过度自信。

I think the most dangerous bias is overconfidence.

风险不是波动率，风险是发生永久性资本损失的可能性。教科书上用标准差衡量风险是完全错误的。

Risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent capital loss. Using standard deviation to measure risk is fundamentally wrong.

不要试图预测经济走向。你只需要找到那些不管经济好还是不好，人们都需要的东西。

Don't try to predict the economy. Just find things people need whether the economy is good or bad.

投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'。

The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'.