想抄底一只下跌的股票,就像想接住一把下落的飞刀。
Trying to catch the bottom on a falling stock is like trying to catch a falling knife.
想抄底一只下跌的股票,就像想接住一把下落的飞刀。
Trying to catch the bottom on a falling stock is like trying to catch a falling knife.
这句话究竟在说什么
这句话不是反对买下跌的股票,而是反对仅仅因为'跌了很多'就去买。'从80跌到40,还能跌到哪去?'——答案是还能跌到4。下跌本身不构成买入理由,便宜要用价值来衡量而不是用前期高点来衡量。正确的做法是等飞刀落地扎进土里——即基本面止稳、逻辑验证之后再捡起来,晚一点买,安全得多。
给普通投资者的可执行清单
一个真实故事 / 场景化情节
2000年互联网泡沫破裂时,思科从80美元跌到40美元,无数人认为'世界级公司腰斩就是机会'冲进去抄底,结果它一路跌到2002年的8美元——腰斩之后再跌80%。而营收增速放缓的信号,早在财报里写得明明白白。飞刀落地前伸手的人,手掌全部被扎穿。
这句话在该大师思想体系里的位置
林奇:'**股价下跌时买入的前提是:你清楚它为什么跌,并确认公司没有变坏。**'
在商业世界里,我最惊讶的发现,是一种我称之为'机构惯性'的超级力量——它驱使管理层去模仿同行的行为,不管多么愚蠢。在抗拒机构惯性时,我的失败率比在收购好公司时还高。
My most surprising discovery: the overwhelming importance in business of an unseen force that we might call 'the institutional imperative.' In business, the institutional imperative drives managers to mindlessly imitate the behavior of their peers, no matter how foolish it may be. I have been more wrong about resisting the institutional imperative than I have been about buying good businesses.
你投资1000美元在一支股票上,最多损失1000美元;但若有耐心,随时间可能赚1万甚至5万美元。
If you invest $1,000 in a stock, the most you can lose is $1,000; but with patience, over time you might make $10,000 or even $50,000.
不要拿你拥有和需要的东西,去换你不需要和不想要的东西。
Don't risk what you have and need for what you don't have and don't need.
唯一真正重要的风险,是永久性损失的可能。
The possibility of permanent loss is the risk that matters most.