风险管理

投资的第一条规则是不要亏钱，第二条规则是不要忘记第一条。

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

当潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳。

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

安全边际的目的是让准确的预测变得不必要。

The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.

重要的不是你做对或做错了，而是你做对时赚了多少，做错时亏了多少。

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

分散投资是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.

投资中最重要的事情是对风险的理解。

The most important thing is understanding risk.

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

投资的第一条规则是不要亏钱，第二条规则是不要忘记第一条。

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

当潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳。

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

重要的不是你做对或做错了，而是你做对时赚了多少，做错时亏了多少。

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

分散投资是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.

投资中最重要的事情是对风险的理解。

The most important thing is understanding risk.

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

如果我知道我会在哪里死去，我就永远不会去那个地方。

All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.

投资中最大的风险是无知。

The biggest risk in investing is ignorance.

如果你不感到担忧，你担忧得还不够；如果你过于担忧，你就做不成任何事。

If you're not worried, you need to worry — and if you're worried, you don't need to worry.

在投资中，和在生活中一样，很少有确定的事情，价值可以消失，预测可以落空。

In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things.

经验告诉我，如果一笔交易一上来就亏钱，那么这笔交易多半不会好。

If a trade doesn't go right from the start, chances are it won't work at all.

真正的问题不在于预测黑天鹅事件，而在于建立对黑天鹅事件的稳健性。

The problem is not predicting black swans, but building robustness to them.

如果你发现自己在一个洞里，最重要的事情就是停止挖洞。

The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.

预测下雨不算本事，建造方舟才是。

Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does.

不要拿你拥有和需要的东西，去换你不需要和不想要的东西。

Don't risk what you have and need for what you don't have and don't need.

投资中最重要的三个字不是'我赚了'，而是'安全边际'。

The three most important words in investing are not 'I made money' but 'margin of safety'.

分散投资是对无知的保护——但如果你知道自己在做什么，过度分散反而会稀释你的回报。

Diversification is protection against ignorance. But if you know what you're doing, over-diversification dilutes your returns.

在你买入一只股票之前，先问自己：如果这只股票明天跌了50%，我是会恐慌卖出，还是会加仓？如果答案是前者，那你根本不应该买。

Before buying a stock, ask yourself: if it drops 50% tomorrow, would I sell in panic or buy more? If the answer is the former, you shouldn't buy it at all.

我之所以能赚钱，不是因为我更聪明，而是因为我比别人更早意识到自己错了。

I make money not because I'm smarter, but because I recognize my mistakes earlier than others.

市场就像一个巨大的实验室，所有人都在里面做实验，但没有人知道实验的结果——因为实验者本身就在改变结果。

The market is a giant laboratory where everyone is experimenting, but no one knows the outcome — because the experimenters themselves are changing the results.

如果你的投资让你晚上睡不着觉，那就卖掉一部分，直到你能安然入睡为止。活着比赚更多钱重要。

If your investments keep you up at night, sell enough so you can sleep well. Survival is more important than making more money.

如果你不把自己的想法写下来并在现实中检验，那你只是在和自己下棋——你永远都是赢家，但你永远也赢不了真正的比赛。

If you don't write down your ideas and test them against reality, you're just playing chess against yourself — you'll always win, but you'll never win the real game.

构建投资组合的目标不是创造最高回报，而是让你在最艰难的环境中也能活下来，然后自然地增长。

The goal of a portfolio is not to create the highest return, but to survive the toughest environments so you can grow naturally.

大多数人犯的最大错误，是把过去当成未来的指南——但市场是一个不断自我进化的系统。

The biggest mistake most people make is using the past as a guide to the future — but the market is a constantly evolving system.

在所有投资错误中，最大的一个就是让情绪替代理性做出决策——而情绪最危险的时候，恰恰是它感觉最正确的时候。

Of all investment mistakes, the biggest is letting emotion override reason — and emotion is most dangerous when it feels most right.

我们永远不知道未来会走向何方，但我们应该知道自己站在哪里——在市场周期中所处的位置比预测方向重要一百倍。

We may never know where we're going, but we should know where we are. Our position in the market cycle matters far more than predicting the direction.

当所有人都认为某件事没有风险时，那才是风险最大的时候——因为价格里已经没有任何'恐惧'的折扣了。

When everyone believes something is risk-free, that's when risk is highest — because the price no longer contains any discount for fear.

我们永远无法精确知道风险在哪，但我们可以知道什么时候风险'不值那个价'——然后站在一旁什么都不做。

We can never know exactly where risks lie, but we can know when risks aren't being priced properly — and then stand aside and do nothing.

卓越的投资业绩不是来自'做对了什么了不起的事'，而是来自'没有做那些会让人破产的蠢事'。

Superior investment performance doesn't come from doing brilliant things — it comes from not doing the stupid things that bankrupt people.

在买入之前，你应该已经想好在什么情况下会卖出。如果你不能在买之前写好'卖出条件'，那你就不应该买。

Before buying, you should already know when you'll sell. If you can't write down your 'sell conditions' before buying, you shouldn't be buying.

投资不是关于在市场中'击败别人'，而是关于'不打败自己'。大多数投资者的亏损，都源于自己的频繁交易和追涨杀跌。

Investing is not about beating others in the market, but about not beating yourself. Most investors' losses come from their own frequent trading and emotional decisions.

今天的一笔费用看起来不多，但经过30年的复利，它会吃掉你三分之一以上的最终财富。

A fee may look small today, but compounded over 30 years, it will eat up over a third of your final wealth.

投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'——这四个字摧毁的财富比任何市场崩盘都多。

The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time is different.' These four words have destroyed more wealth than any market crash.

你不必在每场游戏中都参与。事实上，只参与那些你明显有优势的游戏，是长期获胜的唯一途径。

You don't have to play every game. In fact, only playing the games where you have a clear edge is the only path to long-term victory.

投资中最被低估的品质是'强烈的风险厌恶'——看起来像胆小，实际上正是这种'胆小'保护了你。

The most underrated quality in investing is strong risk aversion — it looks like cowardice, but that very 'cowardice' is what protects you.

不要用借来的钱投资。杠杆是唯一能让一个正确的判断变成一个灾难的东西——因为它会在你坚持到黎明之前就让你死在黑暗里。

Never invest with borrowed money. Leverage is the only thing that can turn a correct judgment into a disaster — because it can kill you in the dark before you make it to dawn.

如果我知道我会死在哪里，我就永远不去那个地方。

All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.

投资操作是以透彻分析为基础，确保本金安全并获得满意回报。不符合这一标准的就是投机。

An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return.

投资的核心原则是安全边际。

The cornerstone of investment is the margin of safety.

寻找一个傻瓜都能经营的公司，因为总有一天傻瓜会来经营。

Go for a business that any idiot can run, because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.

我之所以富有，只是因为我比别人更早知道自己的错误。

I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.

如果我做一笔交易，必须先有一个假设，然后市场会告诉我这个假设是对是错。

痛苦+反思=进步。

Pain + Reflection = Progress.

靠水晶球谋生的人，注定要吃碎玻璃。

He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.

原则是有效应对现实的方式。

Principles are ways of successfully dealing with reality.

投资中最危险的话就是：'这次不一样。'

最重要的不是买什么，而是什么时候买。

你不能预测，但你可以准备。

You can't predict, but you can prepare.

有老的投资者，也有胆大的投资者，但没有又老又胆大的投资者。

风险不是波动性，风险是永久性损失的可能性。

保守的投资者在晚上睡得着觉。

不要在干草堆里找针，直接买下整个干草堆！

Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!

投资中残酷的讽刺是：我们投资者作为一个整体，得到的回报恰好是扣除费用之后的市场回报——不多不少。

投资的四个维度：回报、风险、成本、时间。大多数投资者只看第一个。

大多数投资者主要关注回报，但对风险的关注远比回报重要。

Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, but a focus on risk is far more important.

投资的终极目标不是赚最多的钱，而是赚足够的钱，同时避免毁灭性的损失。

持有现金在牛市中看起来像放弃机会，在熊市中却是最宝贵的资产。

别人处理他们的事务越不谨慎，我们处理自己的事务就必须越谨慎。

The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.

投资者的主要问题——甚至可以说是最大的敌人——很可能就是他自己。

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself.

在投资中，生存下来是第一要务。只有活着，你才能从错误中学习。

你不需要非凡的智慧，只需要不犯蠢的纪律。

It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

投资操作是基于透彻的分析，确保本金的安全和适当的回报。不符合这些要求的操作就是投机。

An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.

安全边际是投资中最重要的概念，所有真正的投资都必须建立在这个基石之上。

The margin of safety is the central concept of investment. All genuine investment must rest upon this foundation.

试图预测市场时机的人是傻瓜。据我所知，没有人能持续准确地做到这一点。

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.

市场大幅下跌时，你真正需要做的是重新审视自己持有股票的基本面，而不是整天盯着K线图焦虑。

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. Corrections are part of the territory.

我之所以富有，只是因为我知道自己什么时候错了。

I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.

重要的不是你对或错，而是你对的时候赚多少，错的时候亏多少。

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

痛苦加反思等于进步。如果你不反思痛苦，它就只是一种折磨。

Pain plus reflection equals progress. If you don't reflect, the pain is just suffering.

多元化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

你需要学会和不确定性共舞，而不是试图消除它。

He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.

我们可能不知道未来会走向哪里，但我们可以知道我们现在处于什么位置。

We may never know where we're going, but we'd better have a good idea where we are.

在投资中，防御性比进攻性重要得多。只要你不亏大钱，复利自然会帮你完成剩下的工作。

The most important thing is to avoid losers, not to find winners.

当好得难以置信的时候，通常就是不可信的。

When something is too good to be true, it probably is.

如果你对一家公司的管理层没什么好感，那就不要买它的股票。

The management of a company is a vital factor in the investment equation.

费用是投资收益的隐形杀手。你在基金上支付的成本，最终都是从你自己的口袋里掏出来的。

The magic of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.

简单是一种被严重低估的投资优势。越复杂的策略，失败的方式就越多。

Simplicity is the master key to financial success. When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.

投资的首要原则不是赚钱，而是不要亏钱。所有成功的投资策略都建立在这个基础之上。

The first principle of investing is not to make money, but to avoid losing money.

安全边际让投资从一种预测游戏变成一种风险管理活动。

A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility.

持有大量现金不是保守，而是为机会做好准备。当别人被迫卖出时，手里有现金的人就成了拍卖会上唯一的出价者。

Holding cash in the absence of opportunity is a sound strategy. Cash gives you the ability to buy when others are forced to sell.

投资的本质不是预测未来，而是为不确定的未来做准备。

Investing is the discipline of relative selection. It is about the process of identifying undervalued securities, not forecasting the future.

我们从来不因为宏观经济的预测而买入或卖出一家企业。宏观经济变量太多，没有人能持续预测准确。

We don't buy or sell based on macroeconomic predictions. There are too many variables.

停止错误的行为，比发现新的正确行为重要得多。当你发现自己在洞中时，最重要的是停止挖掘。

The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.

如果你把好东西和坏东西混在一起，你得到的还是坏东西。在投资中，一家糟糕的子公司可以拖垮整个集团。

If you mix raisins with turds, they're still turds.

过去的投资记录，无论多么辉煌，都不能保证未来的表现。尤其是在市场风格切换时，历史收益往往是最危险的陷阱。

The fact that a security has risen in price or has paid a large dividend is not evidence of its investment merit.

如果你只是为了一夜暴富而进入股市，你几乎一定会遭受惨重的损失。投资不是赌博，心态决定结局。

The investor who permits himself to be stampeded by unjustified market declines into selling is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage.

不确定性越大，潜在的回报就越大——前提是你比其他人更早看清了不确定性的走向。

The greater the uncertainty, the greater the potential reward — but only if you see the direction of that uncertainty before others do.

趋势是你的朋友，直到它拐弯的那一秒钟。追随趋势赚钱容易，难的是在趋势结束前离场。

The trend is your friend until the end when it bends. Making money by following the trend is easy; the hard part is getting out before it reverses.

从错误中学习比从成功中学习重要得多。成功可能只是运气，但错误往往指向了系统的缺陷。

Learning from mistakes is far more important than learning from successes. Success may just be luck, but mistakes usually point to systemic flaws.

可信度加权的决策方式比一人一票制有效得多。在桥水，观点越经过验证的人，在决策中的权重要越大。

Credibility-weighted decision-making is far more effective than one-person-one-vote. At Bridgewater, the more tested an opinion, the more weight it carries.

一个好的投资组合应该有大约15个不相关的回报流。当一些在亏钱的时候，另一些在赚钱——这就是免费的午餐。

A good portfolio should have about 15 uncorrelated return streams. When some are losing money, others are making money — that's the free lunch.

风险不是波动率，风险是发生永久性资本损失的可能性。教科书上用标准差衡量风险是完全错误的。

Risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent capital loss. Using standard deviation to measure risk is fundamentally wrong.

你不能预测未来，但你可以为未来做准备。我不需要知道暴风雨何时来，我只需要确保我的船能承受任何风浪。

You can't predict the future, but you can prepare for it. I don't need to know when the storm is coming. I just need to make sure my ship can weather any storm.

投资的四个维度是回报、风险、成本和时间。令人惊讶的是，绝大多数投资者只关注第一个维度。

The four dimensions of investing are return, risk, cost, and time. Remarkably, the vast majority of investors focus only on the first one.

投资成功最重要的不是智商，而是性格——一种让你能够在别人恐慌时不恐慌、在别人贪婪时不贪婪的性格。

The most important quality for investment success is not IQ, but temperament — the ability to not panic when others panic, and not get greedy when others get greedy.

整个基金行业的结构性问题在于：基金经理通过管理别人的钱变得富有，而投资者承担了全部的风险和大部分的费用。

The structural problem of the entire fund industry is this: fund managers get rich by managing other people's money, while investors bear all the risk and most of the costs.

将投资视为一种概率游戏而非确定性游戏。你不需要每次都对，你只需要在概率站在你这边时下重注。

View investing as a game of probabilities, not certainties. You don't need to be right every time; you just need to bet heavily when the odds are in your favor.

真正的多样化不在于持有大量不同的证券，而在于持有彼此不相关的资产。相关性才是多样化的灵魂。

True diversification is not about holding a large number of different securities. It's about holding assets that are uncorrelated with each other. Correlation is the soul of diversification.

如果我知道我会在哪里死去，我就永远不会去那个地方。

All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.

如果你不感到担忧，你担忧得还不够；如果你过于担忧，你就做不成任何事。

If you're not worried, you need to worry — and if you're worried, you don't need to worry.

我们非常努力地避免愚蠢，我们花在避免错误上的时间比花在寻找机会上的时间多得多。

We spend a lot of time trying to avoid mistakes, more time than we spend looking for opportunities.

你必须学会接受不确定性，这是投资和生活的本质。

You must learn to accept uncertainty; it is the nature of investing and life.

我认为过度分析 paralysis 是另一端的问题，就像分析不足一样危险。

I think analysis paralysis is a problem at the other extreme, as dangerous as underanalysis.

最好的决定往往是在信息不完整的情况下做出的。

The best decisions are often made with incomplete information.

我从不担心错过机会，我更担心做错决定。

I never worry about missing opportunities; I worry more about making wrong decisions.

你必须学会在不确定性中做出决定，这是投资的本质。

You must learn to make decisions under uncertainty; that is the nature of investing.

我认为如果你不能接受损失，就不要投资。

I think if you cannot accept losses, you should not invest.

投资操作是基于全面的分析，旨在确保本金安全和满意回报。不满足这些要求的操作就是投机。

Investment operation is one that promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.

投资的关键是控制风险，而不是追求高回报。

The key to investing is controlling risk, not pursuing high returns.

一个保守的投资者应该把大部分资金投入债券，只把一小部分投入股票。

A conservative investor should put most of their funds in bonds and only a small portion in stocks.

如果你不能承受股价下跌50%，就不应该持有股票。

If you cannot withstand a 50% decline in stock price, you should not own stocks.

分散投资是降低风险的有效方法，但不应该以牺牲质量为代价。

Diversification is an effective way to reduce risk, but should not come at the expense of quality.

不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，但也不要放在太多的篮子里。

Do not put all your eggs in one basket, but do not put them in too many baskets either.

防御型投资者应该避免高风险的投资，如期权、期货等。

Defensive investors should avoid high-risk investments such as options and futures.

好的投资是那些即使在不利情况下也能保护你本金的投资。

Good investments are those that protect your principal even in adverse conditions.

投资于有成长潜力的小公司，但要小心风险。

Invest in small companies with growth potential, but be careful of the risks.

公司的债务水平是评估风险的重要因素。

A companys debt level is an important factor in assessing risk.

小公司比大公司更有增长潜力，但也更有风险。

Small companies have more growth potential than large companies, but also more risk.

不要把所有的钱都投入股票市场，要保留一些现金。

Do not put all your money in the stock market; keep some cash.

投资于那些有全球化业务的公司，可以分散地域风险。

Invest in companies with global businesses to diversify geographic risk.

在股票市场上，最重要的不是你赚了多少，而是你活了下来。

In the stock market, the most important thing is not how much you made, but that you survived.

我有幸在正确的时候出现在正确的地方，这让我赚了很多钱。

I was lucky to be in the right place at the right time, which allowed me to make a lot of money.

当你对一笔交易有疑虑时，那往往是最危险的交易。

When you have doubts about a trade, that is often the most dangerous trade.

在交易中，最重要的是知道什么时候退出。

In trading, the most important thing is knowing when to exit.

最好的交易往往是那些让你感到不舒服的交易。

The best trades are often those that make you feel uncomfortable.

最重要的是不要赔钱，其次是记住第一条。

The most important thing is not to lose money; remember the first rule.

如果你交易得太多，你肯定会犯错。

If you trade too much, you are sure to make mistakes.

如果你发现自己处于一个无法退出的位置，那就是你投入太多的信号。

If you find yourself in a position you cannot exit, that is a signal you are too invested.

在市场上，最危险的事情是自满。

In the market, the most dangerous thing is complacency.

成功的交易需要耐心、勇气和资金管理。

Successful trading requires patience, courage, and money management.

我不寻找确定性，我寻找机会。

I do not look for certainty; I look for opportunities.

最重要的事情是知道什么时候止损。

The most important thing is knowing when to stop losses.

成功的关键是风险管理，而不是预测。

The key to success is risk management, not prediction.

交易的艺术在于知道什么时候加仓，什么时候减仓。

The art of trading is knowing when to add to positions and when to reduce them.

成功的交易者不是那些预测最准确的人，而是那些风险管理最好的人。

Successful traders are not those who predict most accurately, but those who manage risk best.

在市场上，最重要的不是你对了多少次，而是你对的时候赚了多少。

In the market, the most important thing is not how many times you are right, but how much you make when you are right.

成功的关键是能够在正确的时候下大注。

The key to success is being able to place big bets when you are right.

在市场上生存的关键是理解风险，而不是试图避免风险。

The key to survival in the market is understanding risk, not trying to avoid it.

投资的核心是理解风险与回报的关系。

The core of investing is understanding the relationship between risk and return.

在投资中，最重要的事情是理解你在赌什么。

In investing, the most important thing is understanding what you are betting on.

我相信多元化和分散投资的重要性。

I believe in the importance of diversification and spread investing.

理解不同资产类别的相关性是风险管理的基础。

Understanding correlations between different asset classes is the foundation of risk management.

在市场上最重要的不是你的看法对不对，而是你的看法对的时候你赚了多少。

In the market, the most important thing is not whether your view is right, but how much you make when you are right.

理解不同类型风险的特性是资产配置的基础。

Understanding the characteristics of different types of risk is the foundation of asset allocation.

高风险只能带来高回报的说法是错误的。

The statement that high risk can only lead to high returns is wrong.

最危险的投资是那些看起来最安全的投资。

The most dangerous investments are those that look safest.

理解风险是投资成功的关键，而不是追求回报。

Understanding risk is the key to investment success, not pursuing returns.

分散投资可以降低风险，但不能消除风险。

Diversification can reduce risk, but cannot eliminate it.

在投资中，最重要的是不要亏钱。

In investing, the most important thing is not to lose money.

投资于不确定性是最大的错误。

Investing in uncertainty is the biggest mistake.

风险是投资中最重要的考虑因素。

Risk is the most important consideration in investing.

投资回报与所承担的风险之间没有简单的线性关系。

There is no simple linear relationship between investment returns and risk assumed.

在投资中，避免错误比追求正确更重要。

In investing, avoiding mistakes is more important than pursuing correctness.

好的投资是那些你可以在最坏情况下也能持有的投资。

Good investments are those you can hold even in the worst case.

成功的投资不是关于预测未来，而是关于为未来做准备。

Successful investing is not about predicting the future, but about being prepared for it.

好的投资是那些即使在不利情况下也能保护你本金的的投资。

Good investments are those that protect your principal even in adverse conditions.

理解风险溢价是理解投资回报的基础。

Understanding risk premium is the foundation of understanding investment returns.

好的投资者会时刻关注风险，而不是只关注回报。

Good investors always focus on risk, not just on returns.

理解流动性在投资中的作用是重要的。

Understanding the role of liquidity in investing is important.

永远不要在错误的时候加仓。

Never add to a losing position.

成功交易的秘诀是知道什么时候退出。

The secret to successful trading is knowing when to exit.

在交易中，资金管理是最重要的。

In trading, money management is the most important.

当你亏损时，减少交易量。

When you are losing, reduce trading volume.

在市场证明你正确之前，不要加仓。

Do not add to a position until the market proves you right.

在交易中，止损是最重要的纪律。

In trading, stop-loss is the most important discipline.

在交易中，最重要的不是你的看法对不对，而是你错了怎么办。

In trading, the most important thing is not whether your view is right, but what you do when you are wrong.

学会在错误中生存是成功交易的关键。

Learning to survive mistakes is the key to successful trading.

在极端斯坦世界里，平均值几乎毫无意义。

In Extremistan, averages are almost meaningless.

人们总是低估罕见事件的可能性和影响。

People always underestimate the probability and impact of rare events.

在投资中，重要的是不要被黑天鹅事件摧毁。

In investing, what matters is not to be destroyed by black swan events.

反脆弱性意味着在压力下不仅能生存，还能茁壮成长。

Antifragility means not only surviving under stress, but thriving.

风险敞口是你不知道的风险。

Risk exposure is the risk you do not know.

复杂系统往往比简单系统更脆弱。

Complex systems are often more fragile than simple systems.

不要把预测和预言混为一谈。

Do not confuse prediction with prophecy.

最大的风险来自于你不知道的风险。

The biggest risk comes from risks you do not know.

在投资中，要为小概率大影响的事件做好准备。

In investing, be prepared for low-probability, high-impact events.

预测者往往不知道他们不知道什么。

Predictors often do not know what they do not know.

脆弱的事物在压力下会破碎，反脆弱的事物会从压力中获益。

Fragile things break under pressure; antifragile things benefit from pressure.

过度干预往往使系统更加脆弱。

Excessive intervention often makes systems more fragile.

我们生活在一个黑天鹅频发的世界里。

We live in a world where black swans occur frequently.

在投资中，要保持足够的冗余和备份。

In investing, maintain sufficient redundancy and backup.

不要依赖预测，而是要为各种情况做好准备。

Do not rely on predictions; instead, be prepared for various situations.

长期的稳定往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Long-term stability often hides huge risks.

最好的策略是在大部分时间保持保守，在机会来临时大胆行动。

The best strategy is to be conservative most of the time and act boldly when opportunities arise.

在投资中，保护本金比追求回报更重要。

In investing, protecting principal is more important than pursuing returns.

随机性是这个世界的基本特征。

Randomness is a fundamental characteristic of this world.

在极端世界里，少数事件往往决定大部分结果。

In Extremistan, a few events determine most of the outcomes.

风险管理的目标是生存，而不是盈利。

The goal of risk management is survival, not profit.

过度优化会导致脆弱性。

Over-optimization leads to fragility.

在投资中，要学会接受不确定性。

In investing, learn to accept uncertainty.

不要把可预测性和随机性混为一谈。

Do not confuse predictability with randomness.

复杂的金融工具往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Complex financial instruments often hide huge risks.

在投资中，要为最坏情况做准备。

In investing, be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

过度依赖模型会导致系统性风险。

Over-reliance on models leads to systemic risk.

在极端情况下，大多数预测模型都会失败。

In extreme situations, most prediction models will fail.

投资的艺术在于知道什么时候应该保守，什么时候应该激进。

The art of investing is knowing when to be conservative and when to be aggressive.

风险和回报的关系比人们想象的要复杂得多。

The relationship between risk and return is much more complex than people think.

在投资中，要学会在不确定中寻找机会。

In investing, learn to find opportunities in uncertainty.

金融危机的发生往往是因为人们低估了尾部风险。

Financial crises often occur because people underestimate tail risk.

投资组合的多元化是应对不确定性的最好方式。

Portfolio diversification is the best way to deal with uncertainty.

在小概率事件上下小注，在大概率事件上下大注往往是错误的。

It is often wrong to bet small on low-probability events and big on high-probability events.

成功的投资者是那些能够在黑天鹅事件中幸存的人。

Successful investors are those who can survive black swan events.

在投资中，要避免那些只有小概率大收益的投资。

In investing, avoid investments with low-probability, high-return profiles.

理解随机性的本质是投资成功的基础。

Understanding the nature of randomness is the foundation of investment success.

最好的投资策略是那些能够在最坏情况下也能生存的策略。

The best investment strategies are those that can survive even in the worst case.

投资成功的关键是风险管理，而不是追求回报。

The key to investment success is risk management, not pursuing returns.

在投资中，不要把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

In investing, do not put all your eggs in one basket.

在投资中，最重要的是不要亏钱。

In investing, the most important thing is not to lose money.

在投资中，风险管理应该放在第一位。

In investing, risk management should come first.

聪明的投资人既直面风险也直面机会，从不冒没必要的险。

Smart investors face both risk and opportunity, and never take unnecessary risks.

投资最忌讳的就是被情绪左右。

The most dangerous thing in investing is being controlled by emotions.

我宁愿因为太懒而失去机会，也不愿因为太勤快而犯错。

I'd rather miss opportunities from laziness than make mistakes from overactivity.

比特币是一种反常的发明，我永远不会投资它。

Bitcoin is an aberrant invention, and I will never invest in it.

银行是危险的生意——他们用别人的钱做赌注。

Banking is a dangerous business; they gamble with other people's money.

我宁愿因为过于谨慎而错失机会，也不愿因为莽撞而亏钱。

I would rather miss opportunities from caution than lose money from recklessness.

在机会面前，果断和谨慎一样重要。

In the face of opportunity, decisiveness is as important as caution.

在股市上，一鸟在手胜过两鸟在林。

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

承担风险本身无可指责，但承担了自己都不知道的风险才是问题。

It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much you make when right and how much you lose when wrong.

如果你在投资中感到乐趣，那你很可能没有赚到钱。好的投资是无聊的。

If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.

不要让债务的增长速度超过收入的增长速度。

Don't let debt grow faster than income.

知道你不知道什么，比你知道什么更重要。

Knowing what you don't know is more important than knowing what you do know.

我们可能永远不知道要去哪里，但最好知道我们现在在哪里。

We may never know where we're going, but we'd better know where we are.

最危险的事情是认为没有风险。

The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there is no risk.

当别人都认为某种东西有风险时，他们的不愿购买反而把价格压到了几乎没有风险的水平。

When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it is not risky at all.

保守型投资者夜夜安枕。

The conservative investor sleeps well.

价值投资的核心纪律是：只在有安全边际时买入。

The central discipline of value investing is: buy only when there is a margin of safety.

大多数投资者无法区分概率和结果。

Most investors can't distinguish between probabilities and outcomes.

流动性不是免费的——当你想卖的时候，别人也想卖。

Liquidity is not free. When you want to sell, everyone else wants to sell too.

持有现金在市场狂热时让人不安，在市场恐慌时让人安心。

Cash is uncomfortable to hold during market manias, but incredibly comforting during panics.

投资的精髓不是追求回报，而是避免永久性资本损失。

The essence of investing is not maximizing returns, but avoiding permanent capital loss.

把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，然后看好那个篮子。

Put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket very carefully.

避免愚蠢比追求聪明更重要。

It is more important to avoid stupidity than to seek brilliance.

保守型投资不是买安全的股票，而是用安全的方式买任何股票。

Conservative investing is not about buying safe stocks, but about buying any stock safely.

不要试图预测股市的走向——没人做得到，那些声称能做到的人在骗你或者骗自己。

Don't try to predict the direction of the stock market. Nobody can do it, and those who claim they can are lying to you or to themselves.

我之所以富有，只因为我知道自己什么时候会犯错。

I am rich only because I know when I am wrong.

金融市场远非均衡状态，它是一个由恐惧和贪婪交替主导的巨兽。

Financial markets are far from equilibrium; they are a monster driven by alternating fears and greed.

如果你的投资论题没有明确的证伪条件，那它就不是一个论题，只是一个信念。

If your investment thesis has no clear falsification condition, it is not a thesis — it is just a belief.

区分你想要的和你真正需要的，是成熟投资者的标志。

The ability to distinguish between what you want and what you actually need is the hallmark of a mature investor.

价值投资不是买便宜股票，而是用远低于内在价值的价格买入任何资产。

Value investing is not about buying cheap stocks — it is about buying any asset at a price substantially below its intrinsic value.

持有现金不是缺乏想法，而是等待正确想法的纪律。现金是一种看涨期权——对未来的所有机会。

Holding cash is not a lack of ideas; it is the discipline of waiting for the right idea. Cash is a call option on all future opportunities.

投资的本质不是管理回报，而是管理风险。回报是风险管理的结果而非目标。

The essence of investing is not return management but risk management. Returns are the result of risk management, not the objective.

投资者最大的敌人不是无知——无知可以通过学习消除。最大的敌人是以为自己知道但实际上不知道的幻觉。

The investor's greatest enemy is not ignorance — ignorance can be eliminated through learning. The greatest enemy is the illusion of knowledge when you actually don't know.

分析一家公司时不要问“我会赚多少钱”，要问“我会怎么亏钱”。

When analyzing a company, don't ask 'How much will I make?' Ask 'How can I lose money?'

检验一个人的人品不是看他在顺境中怎么做，而是看他在压力下怎么做。这一样适用于检验一家公司的管理层。

The test of a person's character is not how they act in good times, but how they act under pressure. The same goes for testing a company's management.

董事会的真正职责不是批准CEO的薪酬方案——而是确保公司始终做正确的事当CEO在做错事时解雇他。

The real job of a board is not to approve the CEO's pay package — it's to make sure the company does the right thing and fire the CEO when he's doing the wrong thing.

一张漂亮的资产负债表不能弥补一张丑陋的损益表——因为前者迟早会被后者侵蚀。

A beautiful balance sheet cannot compensate for an ugly income statement — because the former will eventually be eroded by the latter.

如果你的投资顾问给你推荐了一只他本人没有买的基金——把门打开请他出去。

If your investment advisor recommends a fund he doesn't own personally — open the door and show him out.

防御型投资者的最佳武器不是深入的研究——而是承认自己没有深入研究的能力。

The defensive investor's best weapon is not deep research — it's admitting the inability to do deep research.

在过去的几十年里我在完全不懂的行业里赚的钱比在我自认为懂的行业里赚得还要多——因为不懂的时候我会更谨慎。

Over the decades I've made more money in industries I knew nothing about than in ones I thought I understood — because not knowing made me more cautious.

所谓的最佳买入时机——就是所有人都在卖出而你可以用不到其价值一半的价格买到优质资产的时候。但你不知道那个时刻什么时候来所以你现在就要开始攒钱。

The best time to buy is when everyone is selling and you can get quality assets for less than half their value. But you don't know when that moment will come — so start saving now.

我的投资生涯可以用一个词概括：生存。如果你能活下来剩下的自然会好起来。

My entire investment career can be summarized in one word: survival. If you can survive, the rest will take care of itself.

在投资中犯错不可怕。可怕的是在犯错之后加重了那个错误的赌注。

Making a mistake in investing is not scary. What's scary is doubling down on that mistake after you've made it.

在桥水我们有一个说法：如果你不介意公开你的错误那你的错误就不会变成秘密——而秘密才是真正能杀死一个组织的东西。

At Bridgewater we have a saying: if you don't mind making your mistakes public, they won't become secrets — and secrets are what truly kill an organization.

在桥水我们不做“这事不可能出错“的假设。我们做“如果它出错了我们会怎么发现它“的假设。

At Bridgewater we don't assume 'this can't go wrong.' We assume 'if it goes wrong, how will we find out?'

好的投资组合就像一个均衡的饮食——你不能只吃牛排也不能只吃沙拉。但大多数人要么全吃牛排要么全吃沙拉。

A good portfolio is like a balanced diet — you can't eat only steak, and you can't eat only salad. But most people either eat all steak or all salad.

我职业生涯中见过的最严重的投资损失——不是来自买入了错误的资产而是来自在正确的资产上用了过高的杠杆然后被迫在错误的时间卖出。

The worst investment losses I've seen in my career didn't come from buying the wrong asset — they came from using too much leverage on the right asset and being forced to sell at the wrong time.

金融服务业每年从美国投资者口袋里拿走了大约5000亿美元——这不是服务的价格而是财富转移的规模。

The financial services industry takes roughly 500 billion dollars from American investors' pockets every year — that's not the price of service, that's the scale of wealth transfer.

告诉我会死在哪里，我就永远不会去那个地方。

Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.

安全边际是投资的基石。

The margin of safety is the cornerstone of investment.

不要在亏损的股票上加倍投入，那是最愚蠢的投资策略。

Don't double down on losing stocks. That's the dumbest investment strategy.

投资要用闲钱，绝不能用急钱和借来的钱。

Invest with spare money only—never with money you need soon or have borrowed.

不借钱、不加杠杆，这是我对自己的铁律。

No borrowing, no leverage—that's my iron rule.

止损是投机者的词，价值投资者只在看错生意时离场。

Stop-loss is a speculator's word; value investors exit only when they misjudge the business.

错的机会成本，往往比错过更贵。

The cost of a wrong opportunity often outweighs the cost of missing one.

看不懂的商业模式，再热闹我也不碰。

No matter how hyped, I won't touch a business model I don't understand.

与其预测风雨，不如造一艘不怕风雨的船。

Rather than predict the storm, build a boat that fears no storm.

我很少做短线，因为短线是在和确定性作对。

I rarely trade short-term, because short-term trading fights against certainty.

安全边际不是精确计算，而是给自己留犯错的空间。

Margin of safety isn't precise calculation; it's leaving room for being wrong.

别赚最后一个铜板，留点利润给别人，也留条退路给自己。

Don't grab the last coin; leave some profit for others and an exit for yourself.

投资上最大的风险，是以为自己懂其实不懂。

The biggest risk in investing is thinking you understand when you don't.

衍生品是金融界的大规模杀伤性武器。

Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.

永远不要依赖单一收入，用投资创造第二个来源。

Never depend on a single income. Make investment to create a second source.

在金融里，要特别警惕用过去业绩做的“证明”。

Beware of past performance proofs in finance.

个人投资者最大的优势，是不必被迫在糟糕的时点卖出。

The individual investor's greatest advantage is not being forced to sell at bad times.

先储蓄再消费，而不是消费后把剩下的储蓄。

Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving.

永远不要在拿到钱之前就花掉它。

Never spend your money before you have it.

如果你买不需要的东西，很快就得卖掉需要的东西。

If you buy things you don't need, soon you'll have to sell things you need.

我对快速赚钱没兴趣，我关心的是随时间安全地赚。

I am not interested in making money quickly. I am interested in making it safely over time.

现金是一张没有到期日的看涨期权。

Cash is a call option with no expiration date.

错过一个好机会的代价，远小于犯下一个致命错误的代价。

The cost of missing one good opportunity is far less than the cost of making one fatal mistake.

我们在所做的一切里都坚持安全边际。

We insist on a margin of safety in everything we do.

真正的风险不是股价上上下下，而是你被迫在错误的时点退出。

The real risk is not the stock price bobbing up and down, but being forced to exit at the wrong time.

个人投资者最大的特权，是没人能逼你在地板价交出筹码。

The individual investor's great privilege is that no one can force you to surrender your holdings at rock-bottom prices.

我们在一切决策中都先问：如果错了，后果我承受得起吗？

In every decision we ask first: if we're wrong, can we survive it?

当一个以辉煌名声著称的管理团队，接手一个以糟糕经济特征著称的企业时，最终完好无损的往往是后者的名声。

When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

投资中最重要的事是确定能力圈的边界在哪里，而不是能力圈有多大。

What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but how realistically they define what they dont know.

反过来想，总是反过来想。如果想帮助印度，先问：什么会毁了印度？然后避开它。

Invert always invert. Turn a situation or problem upside down.

如果一条路通往痛苦和失败，我会把那条路仔细研究一遍，然后坚定地朝相反方向走。

If a path leads to misery and failure I will study it carefully and then go the opposite way.

投资操作是基于透彻的分析，承诺本金安全，并获得满意回报。任何不符合这三条的就是投机。

An investment operation is one which upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.

股市的下跌就像科罗拉多州的暴风雪一样，是不可避免的。如果你准备好了，它们不会伤害你。

Stock market declines are as inevitable as Colorado snowstorms. If you are prepared they cannot hurt you.

我之所以富有，仅仅是因为我知道自己在什么时候错了。我基本上是一个善于认错的人。

I am only rich because I know when I am wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.

重要的不是你判断对的频率有多高，而是你对的时候赚了多少，错的时候亏了多少。

It is not whether you are right or wrong but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.

如果我必须用一个词来概括我成功的秘诀，那就是：生存。先确保你能活下来，再谈收益。

If I had to sum up my success in one word it would be: survival.

痛苦+反思=进步。如果你没有感到痛苦，你可能没有在真正的边界上推进自己。

Pain plus reflection equals progress.

多元化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。你可以通过把不同相关性的资产组合在一起，降低风险而不降低收益。

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

比知道自己正确更重要的，是清楚自己在什么情况下会是错的。真理不是一个固定答案，而是一个动态探索过程。

It is more important to know when you are wrong than to know when you are right.

历史总是在押韵——每一件正在发生的事，都曾在历史上以稍微不同的方式发生过。

History does not repeat itself but it rhymes.

风险来自你不知道自己正在做什么。

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

不要投资于你不了解其财务状况的公司。

Never invest in a company you don't understand its financials.

成功的投资秘诀精炼成四个字安全边际。

The secret of successful investing can be condensed into four words: margin of safety.

判断对错并不重要重要在于正确时获取多大利润错误时亏损了多少。

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

永远不要孤注一掷。

Never go all in on anything.

风险意味着更多可能发生的事情而不是必然发生的一件事情。

Risk means more things can happen than will happen.

绝不要平摊亏损一定要牢牢记住这个原则。

Never average down a loss. Remember this principle firmly.

除非你真的了解自己在干什么否则什么也别做。

Unless you really understand what you're doing, don't do anything.

当我看见一个危险信号的时候我不跟它争执我躲开。

When I see a danger signal, I don't argue with it — I step aside.

长期来看，人们通过努力“不犯蠢”获得的好处，远比通过努力“变得聪明”获得的好处大得多。

投资操作，是经过透彻分析后，承诺本金安全并提供满意回报的行为。不满足这些要求的操作，就是投机。

安全边际的功能，本质上是让对未来的精确预测变得没有必要。

我的成功，不是因为我比其他人更正确，而是因为我比其他人更善于发现并纠正自己的错误。

重要的不是你对或错的频率，而是你对的时候赚了多少、错的时候亏了多少。

如果非要我用一个词来概括我在金融市场上存活下来的原因，那就是：幸存。

多样化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

投资的第一条原则是不要亏钱。第二条原则是不要忘记第一条。这不是我说的，但我一生都在遵守。

多数投资者把注意力集中在寻找能赚多少钱的机会上，而成功的投资者把注意力集中在可能亏多少钱的风险上。

持有现金在牛市中很痛苦，但在熊市中，现金让你成为国王。

投资中最贵的一句话，不是我错了——而是“市场会证明我是对的，只是现在还没到时候”。

投资的第一条规则是不要亏钱，第二条规则是记住第一条规则。

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget Rule No.1.

只有退潮时，你才知道谁在裸泳。

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

我最想知道的事情是我会死在哪里，然后坚决不去那里。

All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.

利润总是能自己照顾自己，而亏损永远不会自动了结。

Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do.

分散投资可以有效降低风险，但永远不要忘记风险。

Diversification can reduce risk, but never forget about risk.

我是一个糟糕的交易员——总是在趋势确认之前进场。但我是一个好投资人——因为砍仓够快。

I'm a lousy trader because I enter before trend confirmation, but a good investor because I cut losses immediately.

安全边际不是一种策略，而是一种思维习惯。它不是你在买入前做的计算，而是你每天都在想的那件事。

Margin of safety is not a strategy, it's a mental habit. It's not a calculation you do before buying — it's the thing you think about every single day.

多元化可以使你的投资组合取得更好的表现——这是一份免费午餐。

Diversification can improve portfolio performance — it's a free lunch.

风险管理不是避免风险，而是识别哪些风险应该承担、哪些应该避免。

Risk management is not about avoiding risk, but about identifying which risks to take and which to avoid.

投资的终极目标不是追求高回报，而是追求非对称回报——在市场上涨时充分参与，在市场下跌时尽量回避。

The ultimate goal isn't high return; it's asymmetric return — full participation on the upside, minimal exposure on the downside.

投资者会犯两种错：行动之错（买错了）和不作为之错（该买没买）。卓越的投资者不是不犯错，而是让两类错误都足够小。

There are two kinds of errors: errors of commission (buying wrong) and errors of omission (failing to buy right). Great investors make both small.

保住本金不是保守，而是理性的起点。没有本金，就没有下一次机会。永远先问“我会亏多少”，再问“我能赚多少”。

Preserving capital isn't being conservative; it's the starting point of reason. Without capital there's no next opportunity. Always ask 'how much can I lose' before 'how much can I make'.

先护住下行，上行自会照顾自己。若一个投资在坏情形下仍能保本，好情形下的收益只是额外的奖赏。

Protect the downside first; the upside will take care of itself. If an investment can preserve capital even in the bad case, the good-case gain is just a bonus.

最危险的时刻，是当你在一笔交易上赚了大钱——“这时你最可能犯下致命错误”。

The most dangerous time for a trader is when he's just had a big win. That's when overconfidence sets in.

你不需要做对很多事情，重要的是不要犯重大的过错。

You don't have to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results. The most important thing is to avoid big mistakes.

安全边际的作用在于，它本质上使得对未来的准确估计变得不必要。

The function of the margin of safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future.

成功的投资在于管理风险，而非回避风险。

Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.

承认不确定性是投资中最重要的态度。

Acknowledging uncertainty is the most important attitude in investing.

你无法预测，但你可以准备。

You can't predict, but you can prepare.

分散投资是唯一免费的午餐。

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

如果你足够聪明，你不需要杠杆；如果你不够聪明，杠杆会毁了你。杠杆是唯一一件让聪明人破产的东西。

If you're smart, you don't need leverage; if you're dumb, it will ruin you. Leverage is the only thing that can make a smart person go broke.

做空比做多难得多，因为你的亏损理论上没有上限，而且市场保持非理性的时间可能比你保持偿付能力的时间更久。但我仍然做空，因为市场有时候就是错的。

Short selling is much harder than going long, because your losses are theoretically unlimited, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But I still short, because sometimes the market is simply wrong.

避免亏损，应当是每个投资者的首要目标。

Avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor.

市场保持非理性的时间，可能比你保持不破产的时间更长。

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.