市场短期是投票机,长期是称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
市场短期是投票机,长期是称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
这句话究竟在说什么
这句话出自格雷厄姆,被巴菲特奉为市场本质的经典表述。短期里股价由人气投票决定——情绪、消息、资金流向;长期里股价由企业的真实质量称重决定——盈利、现金流、护城河。所以短期波动不可预测也不必理会,耐心等待称重机给出答案即可。这也是"市场先生"理论的延伸。
给普通投资者的可执行清单
一个真实故事 / 场景化情节
亚马逊上市初期常年亏损,市场"投票"并不热烈;但它的称重机——营收、用户、现金流——逐年变重。二十年后股价涨了上千倍。反之,无数当年被"投票"爆炒的题材股,最终被称重机打回原形。**人气会骗人,业绩不会**。
这句话在该大师思想体系里的位置
格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》中写下此句,巴菲特在1954年读到这本书后说"就像看到了神谕",并将这句话作为自己投资哲学的基石反复引用。
投资中最具破坏性的情感不是恐惧,而是对错失机会的焦虑。
The most destructive emotion in investing is not fear, but the anxiety of missing out on opportunities.
将投资视为一种概率游戏而非确定性游戏。你不需要每次都对,你只需要在概率站在你这边时下重注。
View investing as a game of probabilities, not certainties. You don't need to be right every time; you just need to bet heavily when the odds are in your favor.
市场短期是一台投票机,但长期是一台称重机。
In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
人群集体癫狂抢购时,往往是理性投资者该安静离场的时候;人群绝望抛售时,反而是该出手捡便宜的时机。
When the crowd is maniaically buying is often when the rational investor should quietly step aside; when they despair and sell is when bargains appear.