斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒

看对行情只是起点，真正的功夫在于：对的时候你敢押多大。

It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right. The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.

永远不要投资于当下，要投资于18个月后的世界。

Never invest in the present. What matters is the world in 18 months.

我从不用估值来判断入场时机，决定股价短期走向的是流动性。

Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks and on the movement of liquidity.

长期回报靠的是保住本金和抓住本垒打。

The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.

当你对一件事极有把握时，就要下重注——把所有鸡蛋放进一个篮子，然后死死盯住这个篮子。

When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular.

永远不要根据估值来做多或做空，因为便宜的可以更便宜，贵的可以更贵。

Never, ever invest in the present, and never short a stock just because valuation looks high.

我刚入行时听到的第一句话就是：牛市赚钱，熊市赚钱，只有猪被宰。我告诉你，我就是一头猪。我坚信，获得长期超额回报的唯一方式就是做一头猪。

The first thing I heard when I got in the business — not from my mentor — was, 'Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.' I'm here to tell you I was a pig. And I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig.

我的优势之一是经济预测，但这只在自由市场有效——当市场比人更聪明的时候。我观察股票市场如何对经济活动变化做出反应，从而理解价格信号如何运作、如何预测它们。

Part of my advantage is that my strength is economic forecasting, but that only works in free markets, when markets are smarter than people. I watched the stock market, how equities reacted to change in levels of economic activity, and I could understand how price signals worked and how to forecast them.

如果买入一只股票的理由不再成立，无论亏多少都要卖掉。

If the reason you bought a stock no longer holds, sell it regardless of how much you've lost.

赚钱之道，是少数几次重注高确信的机会——而非把资金撒在几十个头寸上。

The way to make money is to make a few big, high-conviction bets — not to scatter capital across dozens of positions.

当看不到好球时，最重要的就是不挥棒。

One of the most important things to do is to not play when you don't see a fat pitch.

我买一只股票的原因不再成立时，我不管当初付了多少钱。

If the reason I bought a stock is no longer the case, I don't care what I paid for it.

索罗斯曾告诉我，大众在80%的时间里是正确的，你只需要避开那20%的错误时刻。

Soros told me the crowd is right 80% of the time. You just need to avoid the 20% when they're wrong.

我与机会集竞争，而不是与指数竞争。

I compete against the opportunity set, not the index.

如果你下跌了50%，你必须上涨100%才能回本。

It's just mathematics. If you go down 50%, you have to go up by 100% to break even.

技术分析在今天的有效性大约只有过去的20%，因为现在人人都在用。

Technical analysis is probably 20% as effective as it used to be because everyone uses it now.

当你真的看到球挥得很大时，就大胆挥棒；没看到时，就轻轻挥。

When you really see the ball swing big, swing big. When you don't, swing small.

我绝不会在一大笔亏损后，再下重注只为扳回一城。那是死刑判决。

What I would never do is make a big bet just to get even after a big loss. That's a death sentence.

赔钱的人，通常不是分析错了，而是仓位错了——学会控制仓位是投资的第一课。

投资最难的是等待——好的猎手不会乱开枪。

你不需要每次都对——你只需要做对时赚得够多，做错时亏得够少。

先投资，再调查。

Invest, then investigate.