把系统当作机器来理解，找出其中的因果关系，然后你就可以预测它未来的行为。

Think of the economy as a machine, understand the cause-effect relationships, and you can predict what it will do.

我们永远无法精确知道风险在哪，但我们可以知道什么时候风险'不值那个价'——然后站在一旁什么都不做。

We can never know exactly where risks lie, but we can know when risks aren't being priced properly — and then stand aside and do nothing.

我不预测宏观，宏观太复杂，我也没那个本事。

I don't forecast the macro; it's too complex and beyond my ability.

市场总是错的。它的偏见和趋势就是投资者的机会——你需要在趋势被大众察觉之前发现它。

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux.