短期来看，运气对投资结果的影响远大于技能。区分运气和技能，是投资者最重要的功课之一。

In the short run, luck dominates results far more than skill. Distinguishing between the two is one of the most important tasks an investor faces.

把自己想象成一台机器中的一部分，从更高的层面俯视自己——你既是操作机器的人，也是机器本身。

Think of yourself as a machine operating within a machine and know that you have the ability to alter your machines to produce better outcomes. You are both the operator and the machine itself.

短期债务周期通常持续5到8年，长期债务周期则持续50到75年。大多数人只经历过一个长周期的一半。

Short-term debt cycles typically last 5-8 years, while long-term debt cycles last 50-75 years. Most people have only lived through half of one long cycle.

历史总是在重复，因为人性从未改变。

History repeats itself because human nature never changes.