投资者会犯两种错:行动之错(买错了)和不作为之错(该买没买)。卓越的投资者不是不犯错,而是让两类错误都足够小。
There are two kinds of errors: errors of commission (buying wrong) and errors of omission (failing to buy right). Great investors make both small.
投资者会犯两种错:行动之错(买错了)和不作为之错(该买没买)。卓越的投资者不是不犯错,而是让两类错误都足够小。
There are two kinds of errors: errors of commission (buying wrong) and errors of omission (failing to buy right). Great investors make both small.
这句话究竟在说什么
马克斯把投资失误拆成两类:“做了”的错(commission)和“没做”的错(omission)。 人们只盯前者——买错亏钱痛感强;却忽略后者——错过牛股同样昂贵,只是不出现在账单上。卓越投资者追求并非零错误(不可能),而是两类错误的代价都可控:既不在泡沫重仓踩雷,也不在该贪婪时一味空仓。平衡两类错误比消灭某一类更现实。
给普通投资者的可执行清单
一个真实故事 / 场景化情节
一位价值投资者2010年代初全程空仓科技股,避开多次回调(少犯行动之错),却也错过随后十年大行情(犯巨大不作为之错)。马克斯认为,两端都该用“适度”约束,而非在任一端走极端。
投资的本质不是预测未来,而是为不确定的未来做准备。
Investing is the discipline of relative selection. It is about the process of identifying undervalued securities, not forecasting the future.
巴菲特说过,他有很多很厉害的朋友最后都破产了,原因就是因为用了margin。margin有点像毒瘾,戒掉不容易。
Buffett said many of his very capable friends eventually went bankrupt, all because of using margin. Margin is a bit like an addiction — not easy to quit.
投资的核心原则是安全边际。
The cornerstone of investment is the margin of safety.
如果你的投资让你晚上睡不着觉,那就卖掉一部分,直到你能安然入睡为止。活着比赚更多钱重要。
If your investments keep you up at night, sell enough so you can sleep well. Survival is more important than making more money.