假装会游泳是很危险的,假装会投资也一样。
Pretending to know how to swim is dangerous, and pretending to know how to invest is the same.
假装会游泳是很危险的,假装会投资也一样。
Pretending to know how to swim is dangerous, and pretending to know how to invest is the same.
这句话究竟在说什么
段永平用游泳的比喻生动地说明了'假装懂投资'的危险性。假装会游泳的人,在浅水区可能没事,但一旦到了深水区(市场大跌、黑天鹅事件),就会暴露无遗——那时再想学已经来不及了。投资也一样:牛市里人人都是股神,但一到熊市,那些'假装会投资'的人就会亏得血本无归。段永平说'很多人不理解假装会投资的危险在哪里,直到他们理解了危险'——也就是说,往往是亏了大钱之后才意识到自己其实不懂。
给普通投资者的可执行清单
一个真实故事 / 场景化情节
段永平说'游泳和投资在这点上确实蛮像的'——假装会的人一旦踩不着地就慌了。他在2008年金融危机时看到无数'假装会投资'的人爆仓离场,而真正懂投资的人不仅活了下来,还在低位捡到了大量便宜筹码。
这句话在该大师思想体系里的位置
巴菲特说:'只有退潮时才知道谁在裸泳。'段永平的'假装会游泳'比喻,让这个道理更加形象和直击人心。
你不需要成为每家公司的专家,甚至不需要了解很多。你只需要能够评估在你能力圈范围内的公司。
You don't have to be an expert on every company. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.
不懂的公司,不碰。
If you don't understand a company, don't touch it.
没看懂的公司比较容易鉴别,就是股价一掉你就想卖,涨一点点你也想卖的那种。看懂的那种大概就是怎么涨你都不想卖,大掉时你会全力再买进的那种。
Companies you don't understand are easy to identify: when the price drops you want to sell, when it rises a bit you also want to sell. The ones you understand: no matter how much they rise you don't want to sell, and when they drop big you want to buy more.
不熟不做,知道自己不懂什么比懂什么更值钱。
Don't do what you don't know; knowing what you don't understand is worth more than what you do.