能力圈
关于认知边界、专注、知之为知之
共 91 条名言
知道自己不知道什么，比聪明更重要。
Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant.
投资你所了解的。
Invest in what you know.
知道自己不知道什么，比聪明更重要。
Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant.
投资你所了解的。
Invest in what you know.
永远不要投资你不了解的生意。
Never invest in a business you cannot understand.
你不需要成为每家公司的专家，甚至不需要了解很多。你只需要能够评估在你能力圈范围内的公司。
You don't have to be an expert on every company. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.
你得找到你有激情的东西，不能让别人告诉你什么是你的激情。
You have to figure out what your own aptitudes are.
如果你买的东西不值你付的价，再怎么分散风险也没用。
Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing.
最大的错误是无法看到自己的盲点。
The biggest mistake you can make is not seeing your own blind spots.
对一家公司了解得太少是一种危险，了解得不多却自以为了解很多更加危险。
Knowing a great deal about a few things is better than knowing a little about a lot of things.
风险来自于你不知道自己在做什么。
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
分散投资是对无知的一种保护；如果你知道自己在做什么，分散投资就没有意义。
Diversification is protection against ignorance. If you know what you're doing, diversification makes no sense.
业余投资者只要花一点时间研究自己熟悉的行业，完全有能力战胜华尔街的专业基金经理。
The amateur investor has a huge advantage over the professional — all they need to do is spend a little time researching what they already know.
你的投资组合里不需要50只股票。5到10家你真正理解的公司，比50家你一知半解的公司要好得多。
You don't need 50 stocks in your portfolio. Five to ten companies you truly understand are far better than fifty you barely know.
你不必在每场游戏中都参与。事实上，只参与那些你明显有优势的游戏，是长期获胜的唯一途径。
You don't have to play every game. In fact, only playing the games where you have a clear edge is the only path to long-term victory.
投资你了解的东西。
Invest in what you know.
第二层次思维：第一层次思维说这是一家好公司买吧；第二层次思维说这是一家好公司但人人都知道所以股价可能已经太高了卖吧。
我不要大量的好投资，我要少数几个杰出的投资。
I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.
用闲聊法来了解一家公司——和竞争对手、供应商、客户、前员工聊天。
与其把鸡蛋放在不同的篮子里然后一个个盯着看，不如把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里然后看好那个篮子。
Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.
我们不需要比最聪明的人更聪明，只需要比大多数人更有纪律。
只要做好少数几件事，就足以成功。关键在于——大多数人都做不到这少数几件事。
You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong.
投资你了解的东西。如果你无法用一支蜡笔在一张纸上解释清楚这家公司如何赚钱，就不要买它的股票。
Invest in what you know. If you can't explain in one sentence what a company does, don't buy it.
如果你不觉得自己在犯错，那你就不够激进；如果你不在不断学习，那你很快就会落后。
If you're not failing, you're not pushing your limits, and if you're not pushing your limits, you're not maximizing your potential.
在投资中，闲聊是一种被严重低估的研究工具。
The business 'grapevine' is a highly worthwhile source of investment information.
不要在公开信息已经充分反映的股票上浪费时间——你的优势必须来自别人看不到的东西。
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
我们之所以成功，不是因为我们解决了多少难题，而是因为我们避开了它们。聪明人知道自己的局限，笨蛋才会挑战所有困难。
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
一个人能做出的最聪明的投资就是投资自己。你学到的任何技能都不会被通胀侵蚀，也不会被市场没收。
The most important investment you can make is in yourself.
如果你无法用一支蜡笔说清楚一家公司的业务，就不要买它的股票。复杂是分析的敌人，简洁是决策的朋友。
If you can't explain a company's business in one sentence with a crayon, you don't understand it well enough to invest.
可信度加权的决策方式比一人一票制有效得多。在桥水，观点越经过验证的人，在决策中的权重要越大。
Credibility-weighted decision-making is far more effective than one-person-one-vote. At Bridgewater, the more tested an opinion, the more weight it carries.
你最大的竞争优势不在于你知道什么，而在于你清楚地知道你不知道什么。承认无知是智慧的开端。
Your greatest competitive advantage lies not in what you know, but in knowing clearly what you don't know. Acknowledging ignorance is the beginning of wisdom.
研究一家公司最好的方法不是坐在办公室里看数据，而是走出去和它的客户、供应商、竞争对手面对面交流。
The best way to research a company is not sitting in your office looking at data, but going out and talking to its customers, suppliers, and competitors face to face.
永远不要投资你不了解的生意。
Never invest in a business you cannot understand.
最大的错误是无法看到自己的盲点。
The biggest mistake you can make is not seeing your own blind spots.
我认为我不是个通才，我是一个极度擅长某些领域的人。
I am not a polymath. I am someone who is extremely good at a few things.
我们不追求多元化，我们追求深度。
We do not seek diversification, we seek depth.
你必须学会识别自己的能力圈，并在圈内行动。
You must learn to identify your circle of competence and operate within it.
我认为大多数人都高估了自己的能力圈。
I think most people overestimate their circle of competence.
业余投资者比专业投资者有优势，因为他们可以投资于任何他们了解的公司。
Individual investors have an advantage over professional investors because they can invest in any company they understand.
关注你所在行业的公司，这些是你最可能了解的公司。
Focus on companies in your industry; these are the ones you are most likely to understand.
当你逛街的时候，注意那些生意兴隆的商店，这可能是投资机会。
When you shop, notice which stores are busy; this could be an investment opportunity.
投资于你熟悉的公司，而不是追逐热门股票。
Invest in companies you are familiar with, not in hot stocks.
了解你投资的公司，知道它在做什么生意。
Know the company you invest in and understand what business it is in.
不要因为股票的名称好听就买，要看公司的实际业务。
Do not buy stocks because the name sounds good; look at the actual business.
理解自己不知道什么是投资智慧的开始。
Understanding what you do not know is the beginning of investment wisdom.
如果不了解一家公司，再便宜也不要买。
If you don't understand a company, don't buy it no matter how cheap it is.
在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，世界就像一颗钉子。
To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
找出你最擅长的事情，然后持之以恒、乐此不疲地去把它做好。
Find what you're best at and stick to it with passion.
我从不试图跨过 7 英尺的栅栏，我到处寻找 1 英尺高的机会。
I never try to jump over a 7-foot fence; I look for the 1-foot fences.
如果你看不懂一门生意，那就跳过去。你不必投资每一支股票。
If you don't understand a business, skip it. You don't have to invest in every stock.
永远不要投资你无法用蜡笔画出来的公司。
Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon.
知道你不知道什么，比你知道什么更重要。
Knowing what you don't know is more important than knowing what you do know.
你不需要成为每个领域的专家，你只需要在你了解的领域做出正确的判断。
You don't need to be an expert on everything. You just need to be right on the things you know.
我在麦哲伦基金养成了一个习惯：每个月至少走访两三家我持有的公司，和一线员工聊天而不是坐在会议室听高管演讲。
I made it a habit to visit at least two or three companies I owned each month, talking to frontline employees rather than sitting in conference rooms listening to executives.
可信度加权的决策系统——让最懂行的人有最大的话语权。
A believability-weighted decision-making system — giving the most knowledgeable people the loudest voice.
闲聊调研——和供应商、客户、前员工聊天——是获取投资真相最有效的方式。
The scuttlebutt method — talking to suppliers, customers, and former employees — is the most effective way to get the truth about an investment.
财务报表只能告诉你一家公司过去做了什么，但人——管理层——才能告诉你将来会做什么。
Financial statements can tell you what a company has done in the past, but people — the management — tell you what it will do in the future.
在我的一生中我不记得有哪一次我是因为说了“我不知道“而后悔的。但有很多次我因为假装知道而后悔。
In my whole life, I don't recall ever regretting saying 'I don't know.' But I regret many times when I pretended to know.
多学科思维模型比单一模型好十倍——不是因为它更聪明而是因为它更不容易被一门学科的理论骗到。
A multidisciplinary mental model is ten times better than a single model — not because it's smarter, but because it's harder to be fooled by one discipline's theory.
投资者最大的优势不是比别人聪明，而是可以自由地说“这太复杂了我放弃“。
The investor's greatest advantage is not being smarter than others, but the freedom to say 'This is too complicated, I pass.'
如果你的小孩能一眼认出这家公司的产品并且想要它——这家公司值得你仔细研究。
If your kid can recognize this company's product at a glance and wants it — this company is worth your serious research.
你的生活质量取决于你做出的决定的质量——而你决定的质取决于你把多少不同的好角度放在桌面上。
The quality of your life depends on the quality of the decisions you make — and the quality of your decisions depends on how many different good perspectives you put on the table.
管理层的素质不是你可以从年报中读出来的——你必须和他们的竞争对手、前雇员、客户和供应商交谈。
The quality of management is not something you can read from an annual report — you have to talk to their competitors, former employees, customers, and suppliers.
我买苹果，是因为我真的看懂了它的生意模式。
I bought Apple because I truly understood its business model.
确定性比便宜更重要，宁可少赚确定的钱，不赚看不懂的钱。
Certainty matters more than cheapness; better earn less on what's certain than chase what you don't understand.
集中持股不是冒险，是把钱放在你最懂、最有把握的地方。
Concentrated holding isn't risk-taking; it's putting money where you understand best and are most sure.
守住能力圈，圈外再热闹也与我无关。
Guard your circle of competence; what's outside it, no matter how lively, is none of my business.
看不懂的商业模式，再热闹我也不碰。
No matter how hyped, I won't touch a business model I don't understand.
不熟不做，知道自己不懂什么比懂什么更值钱。
Don't do what you don't know; knowing what you don't understand is worth more than what you do.
投资上最大的风险，是以为自己懂其实不懂。
The biggest risk in investing is thinking you understand when you don't.
如果历史就能让人致富，那最富有的人该是图书管理员。
If past history was all that was needed to be a successful investor, the richest people would be librarians.
一匹能数到十的马，是匹了不起的马——但不是了不起的数学家。
A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse—not a remarkable mathematician.
会计是商业的语言，你得学会读它才能看懂一门生意。
Accounting is the language of business; you have to learn it to understand a business.
我天生就是来配置资本的。
I was wired at birth to allocate capital.
你做过的最重要的投资，是投资你自己。
The best investment you can make is in yourself.
你学得越多，赚得越多。
The more you learn, the more you earn.
个人投资者最大的优势，是不必被迫在糟糕的时点卖出。
The individual investor's greatest advantage is not being forced to sell at bad times.
个人投资者最大的特权，是没人能逼你在地板价交出筹码。
The individual investor's great privilege is that no one can force you to surrender your holdings at rock-bottom prices.
投资中最重要的事是确定能力圈的边界在哪里，而不是能力圈有多大。
What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but how realistically they define what they dont know.
我这辈子没见过一个不读书的智者。一个都没有。巴菲特读的书之多，我读的书之多，都会让你吃惊。
In my whole life I have known no wise people who didnt read all the time — none zero.
了解你持有的股票，就像了解你的孩子一样。你知道它为什么涨为什么跌，什么时候它病了需要治疗，什么时候只是打了个喷嚏。
Know what you own and know why you own it.
你买一只股票的理由不应该是它一直在涨，而是你对这家公司有不同于市场的独到认知。
You dont buy a stock because it has been going up. You buy it because you know something about the company that the market doesnt fully appreciate.
风险来自你不知道自己正在做什么。
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
除非你真的了解自己在干什么否则什么也别做。
Unless you really understand what you're doing, don't do anything.
手里只有一把锤子的人，看什么问题都像钉子。
选股就像画画，先纸上练100家公司，练完你就知道自己适合什么了。
Take 100 companies and write down why you'd buy them. By the time you're done, you'll know your circle of competence.
你不需要买入每一只便宜的资产。你只需要买入那些你最有把握的少数几个。
You don't need to buy every cheap asset. Just the few you're most certain about.
我们的投资有三个篮子：投，不投，不懂。
We have three baskets: in, out, and too hard.
知道自己能力的边界，比知道自己懂什么更重要。在能力圈外下注，等于把命运交给运气——而运气不站在你这边。
Knowing the boundaries of your competence matters more than knowing what you know. Betting outside your circle of competence hands your fate to luck — and luck is not on your side.
“能力圈”的大小不重要，重要的是你知道它的“边界在哪”。不知道边界的能力比没有能力更危险。
Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant.
业余投资者有一个基金经理永远没有的优势：你不需要像他那样被迫买入你不了解的股票。你可以等到完全确定的时候再出手。
The amateur investor has one advantage that a fund manager will never have: you don't have to buy stocks you don't understand. You can wait until you're completely sure before acting.