投资的终极目标不是追求高回报，而是追求非对称回报——在市场上涨时充分参与，在市场下跌时尽量回避。

The ultimate goal isn't high return; it's asymmetric return — full participation on the upside, minimal exposure on the downside.

做空比做多难得多，因为你的亏损理论上没有上限，而且市场保持非理性的时间可能比你保持偿付能力的时间更久。但我仍然做空，因为市场有时候就是错的。

Short selling is much harder than going long, because your losses are theoretically unlimited, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But I still short, because sometimes the market is simply wrong.

高风险只能带来高回报的说法是错误的。

The statement that high risk can only lead to high returns is wrong.

在极端情况下，大多数预测模型都会失败。

In extreme situations, most prediction models will fail.