瑞·达里奥

痛苦+反思=进步。

Pain + Reflection = Progress.

靠水晶球谋生的人，注定要吃碎玻璃。

He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.

不要担心看起来好不好，要担心是否实现了目标。

Don't worry about looking good; worry about achieving your goals.

原则是有效应对现实的方式。

Principles are ways of successfully dealing with reality.

投资中最危险的话就是：'这次不一样。'

不要让债务的增长速度超过收入的增长速度。

Don't let debt grow faster than income.

如果你不觉得去年的自己是个傻瓜，那说明你今年没有学到足够多的东西。

If you don't look back on yourself and think how stupid I was a year ago, then you haven't learned much.

知道你不知道什么，比你知道什么更重要。

Knowing what you don't know is more important than knowing what you do know.

把系统当作机器来理解，找出其中的因果关系，然后你就可以预测它未来的行为。

Think of the economy as a machine, understand the cause-effect relationships, and you can predict what it will do.

进化是宇宙中最强大的力量，也是唯一永恒的东西。

Evolution is the single greatest force in the universe; it is the only thing that is permanent.

区分你想要的和你真正需要的，是成熟投资者的标志。

The ability to distinguish between what you want and what you actually need is the hallmark of a mature investor.

如果你不觉得一年前的自己是个傻瓜，你就没有学到足够多的东西。

If you don't look back at yourself a year ago and think you were stupid, you haven't learned enough.

宏观经济机器虽然复杂，但理解它的只有几个简单齿轮：生产率、短期债务周期和长期债务周期。

The economic machine, though complex, is driven by just a few simple gears: productivity, the short-term debt cycle, and the long-term debt cycle.

可信度加权的决策系统——让最懂行的人有最大的话语权。

A believability-weighted decision-making system — giving the most knowledgeable people the loudest voice.

你的生活质量取决于你做出的决定的质量——而你决定的质取决于你把多少不同的好角度放在桌面上。

The quality of your life depends on the quality of the decisions you make — and the quality of your decisions depends on how many different good perspectives you put on the table.

在桥水我们有一个说法：如果你不介意公开你的错误那你的错误就不会变成秘密——而秘密才是真正能杀死一个组织的东西。

At Bridgewater we have a saying: if you don't mind making your mistakes public, they won't become secrets — and secrets are what truly kill an organization.

在桥水我们不做“这事不可能出错“的假设。我们做“如果它出错了我们会怎么发现它“的假设。

At Bridgewater we don't assume 'this can't go wrong.' We assume 'if it goes wrong, how will we find out?'

好的投资组合就像一个均衡的饮食——你不能只吃牛排也不能只吃沙拉。但大多数人要么全吃牛排要么全吃沙拉。

A good portfolio is like a balanced diet — you can't eat only steak, and you can't eat only salad. But most people either eat all steak or all salad.

如果你和一个人共事三年从来没有激烈争吵过——你们中至少有一个人是在假装同意。

If you've worked with someone for three years and never had a heated argument — at least one of you is pretending to agree.

把人生看作一场游戏——每个问题都是需要解开的谜题，通关后你会获得一颗宝石，这些宝石就是原则。

Think of life as a game where each problem is a puzzle to solve. When you solve it, you get a gem — a principle — that helps you avoid similar problems in the future.

短期债务周期大约持续5-8年，长期债务周期持续50-75年。大多数人在短期周期里焦虑，却完全忽视了长期周期正在酝酿的巨变。

Short-term debt cycles last about 5-8 years, while long-term debt cycles last 50-75 years. Most people worry about the short-term cycles while missing the seismic shifts of the long-term cycle.

不要用「一人一票」的方式做决策。一个在某个领域有三次以上成功记录的人，和第一次碰到这个问题的人，意见的权重不能一样。

Don't make decisions through 'one person, one vote.' Someone who has successfully done something three times has a different believability than someone who's done it zero times.

不要把「你希望是真的」和「实际是真的」混为一谈。拥抱现实是痛苦但必要的。

Don't confuse what you wish were true with what IS true. Embrace reality, painful as it may be.

如果你回头看一年前的自己，不觉得自己当时很蠢，那说明你过去这一年不够诚实。

If you don't look back on yourself a year ago and think you were stupid, you haven't been honest enough with yourself.

分散化是投资里唯一的「免费午餐」——但只有在资产之间相关性足够低时，这一餐才是真正免费的。

Diversification is the only 'free lunch' in investing — but only if the correlations between assets are sufficiently low.

研究“历史”不是让你预测未来，而是让你明白——“你以为的史无前例，历史上至少发生过十遍了”。

By studying history, you will see that what you think is unprecedented has happened many times before.

每个人体内都有“两个自己”：一个理性的规划者，一个情绪的冲动者。投资成败的关键在于“谁在做决定”。

There are two yous — the one that plans ahead and the one that acts in the moment.

投资的“圣杯”不是找一只牛股，而是找到“15个以上”彼此不相关的收益来源。

The holy grail of investing is to have 15 or more good, uncorrelated return streams.

“极致透明”听起来让很多人不舒服，但它是让组织做出“更好决策”的唯一方式。

Radical transparency doesn't mean that everything should be transparent to everyone. It means that people should be able to see things so they can make sense of them for themselves.

“未来是不可知的”，但你知道如果X发生会怎样。所以不要押注一种未来，要为“多种可能”做准备。

Don't confuse what you wish were true with what is true. The only way to succeed is to understand reality and deal with it.