纳西姆·塔勒布

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

真正的问题不在于预测黑天鹅事件，而在于建立对黑天鹅事件的稳健性。

The problem is not predicting black swans, but building robustness to them.

在极端斯坦世界里，平均值几乎毫无意义。

In Extremistan, averages are almost meaningless.

人们总是低估罕见事件的可能性和影响。

People always underestimate the probability and impact of rare events.

在投资中，重要的是不要被黑天鹅事件摧毁。

In investing, what matters is not to be destroyed by black swan events.

反脆弱性意味着在压力下不仅能生存，还能茁壮成长。

Antifragility means not only surviving under stress, but thriving.

风险敞口是你不知道的风险。

Risk exposure is the risk you do not know.

复杂系统往往比简单系统更脆弱。

Complex systems are often more fragile than simple systems.

不要把预测和预言混为一谈。

Do not confuse prediction with prophecy.

最大的风险来自于你不知道的风险。

The biggest risk comes from risks you do not know.

在投资中，要为小概率大影响的事件做好准备。

In investing, be prepared for low-probability, high-impact events.

预测者往往不知道他们不知道什么。

Predictors often do not know what they do not know.

脆弱的事物在压力下会破碎，反脆弱的事物会从压力中获益。

Fragile things break under pressure; antifragile things benefit from pressure.

过度干预往往使系统更加脆弱。

Excessive intervention often makes systems more fragile.

我们生活在一个黑天鹅频发的世界里。

We live in a world where black swans occur frequently.

在投资中，要保持足够的冗余和备份。

In investing, maintain sufficient redundancy and backup.

不要依赖预测，而是要为各种情况做好准备。

Do not rely on predictions; instead, be prepared for various situations.

长期的稳定往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Long-term stability often hides huge risks.

最好的策略是在大部分时间保持保守，在机会来临时大胆行动。

The best strategy is to be conservative most of the time and act boldly when opportunities arise.

历史会重复，但会以你想象不到的方式。

History repeats, but in ways you cannot imagine.

在投资中，保护本金比追求回报更重要。

In investing, protecting principal is more important than pursuing returns.

随机性是这个世界的基本特征。

Randomness is a fundamental characteristic of this world.

专家往往比普通人更容易犯错误，因为他们过于自信。

Experts are more likely to make mistakes than ordinary people because they are overconfident.

在极端世界里，少数事件往往决定大部分结果。

In Extremistan, a few events determine most of the outcomes.

风险管理的目标是生存，而不是盈利。

The goal of risk management is survival, not profit.

过度优化会导致脆弱性。

Over-optimization leads to fragility.

在投资中，要学会接受不确定性。

In investing, learn to accept uncertainty.

不要把可预测性和随机性混为一谈。

Do not confuse predictability with randomness.

复杂的金融工具往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Complex financial instruments often hide huge risks.

在投资中，要为最坏情况做准备。

In investing, be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

过度依赖模型会导致系统性风险。

Over-reliance on models leads to systemic risk.

在极端情况下，大多数预测模型都会失败。

In extreme situations, most prediction models will fail.

投资的艺术在于知道什么时候应该保守，什么时候应该激进。

The art of investing is knowing when to be conservative and when to be aggressive.

风险和回报的关系比人们想象的要复杂得多。

The relationship between risk and return is much more complex than people think.

在投资中，要学会在不确定中寻找机会。

In investing, learn to find opportunities in uncertainty.

金融危机的发生往往是因为人们低估了尾部风险。

Financial crises often occur because people underestimate tail risk.

投资组合的多元化是应对不确定性的最好方式。

Portfolio diversification is the best way to deal with uncertainty.

在小概率事件上下小注，在大概率事件上下大注往往是错误的。

It is often wrong to bet small on low-probability events and big on high-probability events.

成功的投资者是那些能够在黑天鹅事件中幸存的人。

Successful investors are those who can survive black swan events.

在投资中，要避免那些只有小概率大收益的投资。

In investing, avoid investments with low-probability, high-return profiles.

理解随机性的本质是投资成功的基础。

Understanding the nature of randomness is the foundation of investment success.

最好的投资策略是那些能够在最坏情况下也能生存的策略。

The best investment strategies are those that can survive even in the worst case.

风险管理不是避免风险，而是识别哪些风险应该承担、哪些应该避免。

Risk management is not about avoiding risk, but about identifying which risks to take and which to avoid.

错误总是来自于对确定性的过度信任。

Errors always come from excessive trust in certainty.

脆弱的事物喜欢安宁，反脆弱的事物从混乱中成长，强韧的事物并不太在意环境。

Fragile things like peace, antifragile things grow from disorder, robust things don't care too much about the environment.

你无法预测，但你可以准备。

You can't predict, but you can prepare.