纳西姆·塔勒布

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

风吹灭蜡烛，却助长火焰。反脆弱性利用冲击和不确定性。

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.

真正的问题不在于预测黑天鹅事件，而在于建立对黑天鹅事件的稳健性。

The problem is not predicting black swans, but building robustness to them.

在极端斯坦世界里，平均值几乎毫无意义。

In Extremistan, averages are almost meaningless.

人们总是低估罕见事件的可能性和影响。

People always underestimate the probability and impact of rare events.

在投资中，重要的是不要被黑天鹅事件摧毁。

In investing, what matters is not to be destroyed by black swan events.

反脆弱性意味着在压力下不仅能生存，还能茁壮成长。

Antifragility means not only surviving under stress, but thriving.

风险敞口是你不知道的风险。

Risk exposure is the risk you do not know.

复杂系统往往比简单系统更脆弱。

Complex systems are often more fragile than simple systems.

不要把预测和预言混为一谈。

Do not confuse prediction with prophecy.

最大的风险来自于你不知道的风险。

The biggest risk comes from risks you do not know.

在投资中，要为小概率大影响的事件做好准备。

In investing, be prepared for low-probability, high-impact events.

预测者往往不知道他们不知道什么。

Predictors often do not know what they do not know.

脆弱的事物在压力下会破碎，反脆弱的事物会从压力中获益。

Fragile things break under pressure; antifragile things benefit from pressure.

过度干预往往使系统更加脆弱。

Excessive intervention often makes systems more fragile.

我们生活在一个黑天鹅频发的世界里。

We live in a world where black swans occur frequently.

在投资中，要保持足够的冗余和备份。

In investing, maintain sufficient redundancy and backup.

不要依赖预测，而是要为各种情况做好准备。

Do not rely on predictions; instead, be prepared for various situations.

长期的稳定往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Long-term stability often hides huge risks.

最好的策略是在大部分时间保持保守，在机会来临时大胆行动。

The best strategy is to be conservative most of the time and act boldly when opportunities arise.

历史会重复，但会以你想象不到的方式。

History repeats, but in ways you cannot imagine.

在投资中，保护本金比追求回报更重要。

In investing, protecting principal is more important than pursuing returns.

随机性是这个世界的基本特征。

Randomness is a fundamental characteristic of this world.

专家往往比普通人更容易犯错误，因为他们过于自信。

Experts are more likely to make mistakes than ordinary people because they are overconfident.

在极端世界里，少数事件往往决定大部分结果。

In Extremistan, a few events determine most of the outcomes.

风险管理的目标是生存，而不是盈利。

The goal of risk management is survival, not profit.

过度优化会导致脆弱性。

Over-optimization leads to fragility.

在投资中，要学会接受不确定性。

In investing, learn to accept uncertainty.

不要把可预测性和随机性混为一谈。

Do not confuse predictability with randomness.

复杂的金融工具往往隐藏着巨大的风险。

Complex financial instruments often hide huge risks.

在投资中，要为最坏情况做准备。

In investing, be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

过度依赖模型会导致系统性风险。

Over-reliance on models leads to systemic risk.

在极端情况下，大多数预测模型都会失败。

In extreme situations, most prediction models will fail.

投资的艺术在于知道什么时候应该保守，什么时候应该激进。

The art of investing is knowing when to be conservative and when to be aggressive.

风险和回报的关系比人们想象的要复杂得多。

The relationship between risk and return is much more complex than people think.

在投资中，要学会在不确定中寻找机会。

In investing, learn to find opportunities in uncertainty.

金融危机的发生往往是因为人们低估了尾部风险。

Financial crises often occur because people underestimate tail risk.

投资组合的多元化是应对不确定性的最好方式。

Portfolio diversification is the best way to deal with uncertainty.

在小概率事件上下小注，在大概率事件上下大注往往是错误的。

It is often wrong to bet small on low-probability events and big on high-probability events.

成功的投资者是那些能够在黑天鹅事件中幸存的人。

Successful investors are those who can survive black swan events.

在投资中，要避免那些只有小概率大收益的投资。

In investing, avoid investments with low-probability, high-return profiles.

理解随机性的本质是投资成功的基础。

Understanding the nature of randomness is the foundation of investment success.

最好的投资策略是那些能够在最坏情况下也能生存的策略。

The best investment strategies are those that can survive even in the worst case.

风险管理不是避免风险，而是识别哪些风险应该承担、哪些应该避免。

Risk management is not about avoiding risk, but about identifying which risks to take and which to avoid.

错误总是来自于对确定性的过度信任。

Errors always come from excessive trust in certainty.

脆弱的事物喜欢安宁，反脆弱的事物从混乱中成长，强韧的事物并不太在意环境。

Fragile things like peace, antifragile things grow from disorder, robust things don't care too much about the environment.

你无法预测，但你可以准备。

You can't predict, but you can prepare.

永远不要去过一条平均深度四英尺的河。

Never cross a river if it is on average four feet deep.

凡是脆弱的东西终将破碎，而反脆弱的系统会在波动中变得更强。

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility.

永远不要涉水过一条平均深度四英尺的河。

Never cross a river if it is on average four feet deep.

有些事物会从波动和混乱中受益，这就是反脆弱。

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.

永远不要涉水过一条平均水深四英尺的河。

Never cross a river if it is on average four feet deep.

有些东西会从冲击中受益，它们在波动、随机和混乱中成长——这就是反脆弱。

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness and disorder.

黑天鹅：概率极小、却影响巨大的意外事件。

The black swan: an event with a very low probability but an enormous impact.

有些东西在冲击中反而受益——它们暴露于波动时会变得更强，这叫反脆弱。

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility. That is antifragility.

我们很容易被随机性愚弄。

We are fooled by randomness.

黑天鹅事件有三个特征：罕见、影响巨大、事后看似可解释。

A black swan event has three attributes: it is unpredictable, carries an extreme impact, and after the fact we rationalize it as explainable.

世界是由极端、未知和极不可能发生的事件主宰的。

The world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the improbable.

有些事物能从混乱中获益，那叫反脆弱。

Some things gain from disorder—they are antifragile.

用杠铃策略：大部分资金极端安全，小部分押注极端事件。

Use the barbell: keep most safe, take small extreme bets.

我们无法预测黑天鹅，但可以为它的到来做好准备。

We cannot predict black swans, but we can prepare for them.

反脆弱：真正强大的系统能从混乱中获益。

Antifragile: systems that gain from disorder.

用杠铃策略：大部分资金求生存，少量资金博高收益。

The barbell strategy: most capital for survival, a little for explosive upside.

风会吹灭蜡烛，却能让火燃得更旺。

Wind extinguishes a candle, but energizes a fire.

脆弱的反面不是坚韧，而是反脆弱。

The opposite of fragile is not robust. It's antifragile.

温和的成功可以用技能和努力来解释，狂野的成功只能归因于方差。

Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.

有些事物能从冲击中受益——当暴露在波动、随机、混乱和压力之下时，它们反而能茁壮成长。

Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors.

对强韧的东西，错误是信息；对脆弱的东西，错误就只是错误。

For the robust, an error is information; for the fragile, an error is an error.

事件越罕见，就越难以追踪，我们对它发生频率的了解就越少。

The rarer the event, the harder it is to track, and the less we know about its frequency.

永远不要去问一个拥有公司的人：这是不是一项好投资。

Never ask a man who owns a company whether it's a good investment.

我永远不可能知道未知——但从定义上说，我总是可以猜测它会怎样影响我。

I can never know the unknown, but I can always guess how it will affect me.

最有害的三种瘾：海洛因、碳水化合物，和每月发的工资。

The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.

黑天鹅：事前不可预测、影响巨大、事后可解释的事件主导着世界。

Black swans — events that are unpredictable, extreme, and retrospectively rationalized — dominate the world.

反脆弱：从波动和混乱中受益，而不是仅仅抵御它们。

Antifragile: things benefit from disorder rather than merely resisting it.

杠铃策略：大部分资源求稳，小部分资源搏高收益。

Barbell strategy: put most resources in ultra-safe assets, a small slice in high-risk, high-upside bets.

你无法预测黑天鹅，但可以为它的到来做准备。

You can't predict the black swan, but you can prepare for it.

错过火车只有当你追赶时才痛苦。

Missing a train is only painful if you run after it.

永远不要蹚一条平均水深四英尺的河。

Never cross a river that is on average four feet deep.

反脆弱：那些从混乱中获益的事物。

Antifragility: things that gain from disorder.

宁可频繁的小错，也不要罕见的灾难。

Mild but frequent mistakes are preferred to rare but catastrophic ones.

永远不要因为河'平均'只有四英尺深就趟过去。

Never cross a river because it is on average four feet deep.

火鸡被喂养了1000天，于是认定生活很安全，结果在第1001天被宰杀。

The turkey is fed for a thousand days and concludes that life is safe, then is slaughtered on day 1001.

反脆弱：有些东西反而从冲击中获益，在波动中茁壮成长。

Antifragility: some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility.

你无法预测黑天鹅，但可以让自己在它来临时不被毁灭。

You can't predict black swans, but you can make yourself antifragile to them.

别告诉我你怎么想，告诉我你的投资组合里有什么。

Don't tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.

杠铃策略：把大部分钱放最安全处，小部分用于高不对称的赌注。

Barbell strategy: put most capital in safe assets, a little in high-asymmetry bets.

我们高估了自己知道的，低估了自己不知道的。

We overestimate what we know and underestimate what we don't.