雷·达里奥

如果你不把自己的想法写下来并在现实中检验，那你只是在和自己下棋——你永远都是赢家，但你永远也赢不了真正的比赛。

If you don't write down your ideas and test them against reality, you're just playing chess against yourself — you'll always win, but you'll never win the real game.

构建投资组合的目标不是创造最高回报，而是让你在最艰难的环境中也能活下来，然后自然地增长。

The goal of a portfolio is not to create the highest return, but to survive the toughest environments so you can grow naturally.

大多数人犯的最大错误，是把过去当成未来的指南——但市场是一个不断自我进化的系统。

The biggest mistake most people make is using the past as a guide to the future — but the market is a constantly evolving system.

最好的想法往往来自最激烈的辩论。如果你不能容忍别人质疑你的观点，你的观点就不值得被持有。

The best ideas often come from the most heated debates. If you can't tolerate having your ideas challenged, your ideas aren't worth holding.

在所有投资错误中，最大的一个就是让情绪替代理性做出决策——而情绪最危险的时候，恰恰是它感觉最正确的时候。

Of all investment mistakes, the biggest is letting emotion override reason — and emotion is most dangerous when it feels most right.

痛苦加反思等于进步。如果你不反思痛苦，它就只是一种折磨。

Pain plus reflection equals progress. If you don't reflect, the pain is just suffering.

多元化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

你需要学会和不确定性共舞，而不是试图消除它。

He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.

历史总是在重复，因为人性从未改变。

History repeats itself because human nature never changes.

如果你不觉得自己在犯错，那你就不够激进；如果你不在不断学习，那你很快就会落后。

If you're not failing, you're not pushing your limits, and if you're not pushing your limits, you're not maximizing your potential.

从错误中学习比从成功中学习重要得多。成功可能只是运气，但错误往往指向了系统的缺陷。

Learning from mistakes is far more important than learning from successes. Success may just be luck, but mistakes usually point to systemic flaws.

短期债务周期通常持续5到8年，长期债务周期则持续50到75年。大多数人只经历过一个长周期的一半。

Short-term debt cycles typically last 5-8 years, while long-term debt cycles last 50-75 years. Most people have only lived through half of one long cycle.

可信度加权的决策方式比一人一票制有效得多。在桥水，观点越经过验证的人，在决策中的权重要越大。

Credibility-weighted decision-making is far more effective than one-person-one-vote. At Bridgewater, the more tested an opinion, the more weight it carries.

一个好的投资组合应该有大约15个不相关的回报流。当一些在亏钱的时候，另一些在赚钱——这就是免费的午餐。

A good portfolio should have about 15 uncorrelated return streams. When some are losing money, others are making money — that's the free lunch.

你最大的竞争优势不在于你知道什么，而在于你清楚地知道你不知道什么。承认无知是智慧的开端。

Your greatest competitive advantage lies not in what you know, but in knowing clearly what you don't know. Acknowledging ignorance is the beginning of wisdom.

痛苦+反思=进步。如果你没有感到痛苦，你可能没有在真正的边界上推进自己。

Pain plus reflection equals progress.

多元化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。你可以通过把不同相关性的资产组合在一起，降低风险而不降低收益。

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

如果你想成为一个成功的投资者，你必须独立思考。共识通常都是错的，你必须逆着人群的方向走。

To be a successful investor you have to bet against the consensus and be right.

比知道自己正确更重要的，是清楚自己在什么情况下会是错的。真理不是一个固定答案，而是一个动态探索过程。

It is more important to know when you are wrong than to know when you are right.

历史总是在押韵——每一件正在发生的事，都曾在历史上以稍微不同的方式发生过。

History does not repeat itself but it rhymes.

痛苦+反思=进步。

不要把精力浪费在预测未来上，集中精力了解现实是如何运作的，然后确定如何最好地应对。

你需要像一个病例诊断师一样客观地审视自己的错误，才能从错误中学到东西。否则，你就会把错误归咎于坏运气。

多样化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。

要像运转一台机器一样运转你的投资——一旦设定了规则，就不要让情绪参与进来。

痛苦+反思=进步。痛苦是一个信号，告诉你有什么东西需要改变。如果你逃避痛苦，你就逃避了成长的机会。拥抱它，解剖它，你就会进步。

Pain + Reflection = Progress. Pain is a signal that something needs to change. If you run from pain, you run from the opportunity to grow. Embrace it, dissect it, and you will progress.

经济机器的运行就像大自然的生态系统——繁荣、衰退、萧条、复苏，这是不可逃避的循环。与其预测下一次衰退何时到来，不如确保你有能力在衰退中生存。

The economic machine operates like a natural ecosystem — boom, recession, depression, recovery, an inescapable cycle. Instead of predicting when the next recession will come, ensure you can survive it.

长期债务周期的顶峰就是所有借款人都在借新还旧的时候。这时任何一次信用收紧，都会引发连锁违约，因为整个系统都在依赖‘有人愿意继续借钱‘这个前提。

The peak of the long-term debt cycle comes when all borrowers are rolling over old debt with new borrowing. At that point, any credit tightening triggers a chain of defaults, because the entire system depends on someone being willing to keep lending.

原则是应对现实的算法。好的原则来自反复犯错后提炼出的规律，坏的原则来自一厢情愿。把你的决策写成原则，你的大脑就有了操作系统。

Principles are algorithms for dealing with reality. Good principles come from patterns distilled from repeated mistakes. Bad principles come from wishful thinking. Writing your decisions as principles gives your brain an operating system.

做一个超级现实主义者。拥抱现实，应对现实，不要把时间浪费在幻想‘世界应该怎样‘上。你越早接受世界的本来面目，你就越早能利用它来获利。

Be a hyperrealist. Embrace reality and deal with it. Don't waste time fantasizing about how the world should be. The sooner you accept the world as it is, the sooner you can profit from it.