瑞·达利欧
Ray Dalio桥水基金创始人，全球最大对冲基金掌舵人。著有《原则》，提倡极度透明和系统化决策。其全天候策略（All Weather）影响深远。
经典名言
共 117 条名言
痛苦+反思=进步。
Pain + Reflection = Progress.
分散投资是投资中唯一的免费午餐。
Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.
痛苦+反思=进步。
Pain + Reflection = Progress.
分散投资是投资中唯一的免费午餐。
Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.
如果你不感到担忧，你担忧得还不够；如果你过于担忧，你就做不成任何事。
If you're not worried, you need to worry — and if you're worried, you don't need to worry.
最大的错误是无法看到自己的盲点。
The biggest mistake you can make is not seeing your own blind spots.
如果你不感到担忧，你担忧得还不够；如果你过于担忧，你就做不成任何事。
If you're not worried, you need to worry — and if you're worried, you don't need to worry.
最大的错误是无法看到自己的盲点。
The biggest mistake you can make is not seeing your own blind spots.
我相信任何事情都有循环，成功的关键是顺应这些循环。
I believe everything has cycles, and the key to success is to go with these cycles.
大多数人在面对痛苦时会回避，而不是拥抱它并从中学习。
Most people avoid pain rather than embrace it and learn from it.
真相是成功最坚实的基础。
Truth is the most solid foundation for success.
最好的决策来自于把最好的思考与最好的决策过程结合起来。
The best decisions come from combining the best thinking with the best decision-making process.
我相信极度求真，极度透明。
I believe in being radically truthful and radically transparent.
失败是学习的最好机会，不要害怕失败。
Failure is the best opportunity to learn; do not be afraid of failure.
理解历史和经济周期可以帮助你做出更好的投资决策。
Understanding history and economic cycles can help you make better investment decisions.
大多数人的最大问题是没有开放的头脑。
Most peoples biggest problem is not having an open mind.
你想要什么，你就能得到什么，只要你愿意为此付出代价。
You can have whatever you want as long as you are willing to pay the price.
理解债务周期是理解经济的关键。
Understanding the debt cycle is the key to understanding the economy.
在市场上生存的关键是理解风险，而不是试图避免风险。
The key to survival in the market is understanding risk, not trying to avoid it.
我相信多角度思考，而不只是单一角度。
I believe in multi-perspective thinking, not just a single perspective.
把错误当作学习的机会，而不是失败的标志。
Treat mistakes as learning opportunities, not as signs of failure.
我建立桥水不是为了赚钱，而是为了理解经济运作的原理。
I built Bridgewater not to make money, but to understand how the economy works.
最成功的决策来自于把可信度加权与独立思考结合起来。
The most successful decisions come from combining believability weighting with independent thinking.
理解因果关系是预测未来的关键。
Understanding cause-and-effect relationships is the key to predicting the future.
我学到的一个最重要的教训是：差异化思维是成功的关键。
One of the most important lessons I learned is that differentiated thinking is the key to success.
不要把未来简单地从过去推断，因为情况会变化。
Do not extrapolate the future simply from the past because situations change.
成功的生活需要平衡，接受现实并努力改变。
A successful life requires balance, accepting reality while striving to change it.
理解他人的视角可以帮助你做出更好的决策。
Understanding others perspectives can help you make better decisions.
投资的核心是理解风险与回报的关系。
The core of investing is understanding the relationship between risk and return.
我相信通过原则生活，而不是通过记忆生活。
I believe in living by principles rather than by memory.
大多数痛苦来自于你期望的和你得到的之间的差距。
Most pain comes from the gap between what you expect and what you get.
理解自己的弱点是改进的第一步。
Understanding your own weaknesses is the first step to improvement.
好的想法需要经过压力测试才能成为好决策。
Good ideas need to be stress-tested to become good decisions.
我相信系统性思考，而不只是线性思考。
I believe in systemic thinking, not just linear thinking.
在投资中，最重要的事情是理解你在赌什么。
In investing, the most important thing is understanding what you are betting on.
大多数人在决策时会受到情绪的影响。
Most people are influenced by emotions when making decisions.
理解历史周期可以帮助你避免重蹈覆辙。
Understanding historical cycles can help you avoid repeating mistakes.
我相信想法的精英制度，让最好的想法胜出。
I believe in an idea meritocracy, letting the best ideas win.
痛苦加反思等于进步，这是我在生活中学到的最重要的公式。
Pain plus reflection equals progress; this is the most important formula I have learned in life.
不要把希望和现实混为一谈。
Do not confuse hope with reality.
成功的关键不是避免错误，而是从错误中快速学习。
The key to success is not avoiding mistakes, but learning quickly from them.
我相信多元化和分散投资的重要性。
I believe in the importance of diversification and spread investing.
理解不同资产类别的相关性是风险管理的基础。
Understanding correlations between different asset classes is the foundation of risk management.
在市场上最重要的不是你的看法对不对，而是你的看法对的时候你赚了多少。
In the market, the most important thing is not whether your view is right, but how much you make when you are right.
我相信通过数据和逻辑做决策，而不是通过情绪。
I believe in making decisions through data and logic, not through emotions.
理解经济的运作原理是投资成功的基础。
Understanding how the economy works is the foundation of investment success.
我相信每个人都有自己的优点和缺点，关键是发挥优点，管理缺点。
I believe everyone has their own strengths and weaknesses; the key is to leverage strengths and manage weaknesses.
在处理问题时，要分清主要矛盾和次要矛盾。
When handling problems, distinguish between primary and secondary contradictions.
我相信极度开放，同时极度有原则。
I believe in being radically open-minded while being radically principled.
理解你周围人的优点和缺点可以帮助你更好地与他们合作。
Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of people around you can help you cooperate better with them.
成功的决策需要好的输入和好的处理过程。
Successful decisions require good inputs and good processing.
我相信在决策时要保持冷静，不受情绪影响。
I believe in staying calm when making decisions and not being influenced by emotions.
理解政治和经济之间的互动是预测未来的关键。
Understanding the interaction between politics and economics is the key to predicting the future.
我相信通过写下来的原则来指导决策。
I believe in guiding decisions through written principles.
理解债务和货币的运作原理是理解经济危机的关键。
Understanding how debt and money work is the key to understanding economic crises.
我相信建立系统来做出好的决策，而不是依赖直觉。
I believe in building systems to make good decisions rather than relying on intuition.
理解不同类型风险的特性是资产配置的基础。
Understanding the characteristics of different types of risk is the foundation of asset allocation.
我相信持续学习是成功的关键。
I believe continuous learning is the key to success.
痛苦加反思等于进步。
Pain + reflection = progress.
保持头脑极度开放同时极度坚定。
Be radically open-minded and radically determined.
理解你并非无所不知。
Understand that you don't know everything.
拥抱现实并应对它。
Embrace reality and deal with it.
明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯紧稳健的基本面；轻浮的人跟着感觉走，做出情绪化的反应。
The wise stay focused on solid fundamentals through the ups and downs, while the flighty follow their feelings and react emotionally.
最重要的不是预知未来，而是知道在每一个时间点上如何针对可获得的信息做出合理的回应。
The most important thing is not to foretell the future, but to know how to respond appropriately to the information available at each point in time.
投资圣杯：找到10-15个良好的、互不相关的回报流。
The Holy Grail of investing: finding 10-15 good, uncorrelated return streams.
当真相与愿望不符时，选择接受真相。
When the truth conflicts with your desires, choose the truth.
分散化是投资的圣杯：找到十五个良好的、互不相关的回报流，就能在不降低收益的情况下大幅降低风险。
Diversification is the Holy Grail of investing: fifteen good, uncorrelated return streams can dramatically reduce risk without reducing return.
不要用你想要的世界去做判断，要用真实的世界。
Truth—or, more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality—is the essential foundation for any good outcome.
把每一天当作恰好相反的情况可能发生来准备。
He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.
投资的圣杯，就是找到10到15个良好且互不相关的回报流。
The Holy Grail of investing is to find 10 to 15 good, uncorrelated return streams.
如果你现在不觉得担心，你才需要担心；如果你已经在担心，你反而不需要担心。
If you're not worried, you need to worry. And if you're worried, you don't need to worry.
痛苦加上反思等于进步。
Pain + Reflection = Progress.
分散化是投资中唯一的免费午餐。
Diversification is the Holy Grail of investing.
深思熟虑的分歧比表面的一致更有价值——你要找的是能证明你错的人。
Thoughtful disagreement is far more valuable than superficial agreement.
痛苦加上反思，才等于进步。
Pain + Reflection = Progress.
你必须知道自己不知道什么，并想办法应对它。
Knowing what you don't know is at least as useful as knowing what you know.
几乎所有正在发生的事，都只是'另一件同类的事'——历史早就演过了。
Almost everything is 'another one of those' — a variation on something that has happened before.
不要把'你希望为真'与'实际为真'混为一谈。
Don't confuse what you wish were true with what is really true.
经济像一台机器，由生产率增长、短期债务周期和长期债务周期共同驱动。
The economy works like a machine, driven by productivity growth, short-term debt cycles, and long-term debt cycles.
分散投资是投资界唯一的免费午餐。
Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.
你要做的是极度求真和极度透明。
Radical truth and radical transparency.
找到十五个良好的、互不相关的回报流，是投资的圣杯。
Finding 15 good, uncorrelated return streams is the Holy Grail of investing.
债务周期是最重要的周期。理解它，你就能理解几乎所有的经济危机和金融危机。
The debt cycle is the most important cycle. Understanding it helps you understand almost all economic and financial crises.
痛苦加反思等于进步。如果你没有在失败中反思，那失败就只是痛苦。
Pain + Reflection = Progress.
不要让恐惧和希望影响你的判断。恐惧让你在应该买的时候卖出，希望让你在应该卖的时候持有。
Don't let fears and hopes drive your decisions.
了解经济机器如何运转，是做出好投资决策的基础。
Understanding how the economic machine works is the foundation for making good investment decisions.
不要让对别人看法的恐惧阻碍你前进。你必须自己决定做什么，并有勇气去做。
Don't let fears of what others think of you stand in your way. You must decide for yourself what you will do and have the courage to do it.
把自己想象成一台机器中的一部分，从更高的层面俯视自己——你既是操作机器的人，也是机器本身。
Think of yourself as a machine operating within a machine and know that you have the ability to alter your machines to produce better outcomes. You are both the operator and the machine itself.
影响合理决策的两个最大障碍是你的自我意识和思维盲点——它们让你看不到自己的弱点，也看不到更好的答案。
The two biggest barriers to good decision-making are your ego and your blind spots. Together, they make it hard for you to objectively see what is true about you and your circumstances and to make the best possible decisions.
不要把愿望与事实混淆。不要让偏见阻碍你保持客观。想要取得好结果，你需要冷静而不是情绪化。
Don't confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. Don't let biases prevent you from being objective. To get good results, you need to be rational rather than emotional.
系统地记录错误，你就能系统地进步。
找到与你观点不同的人，他们能帮你看到盲区。
你必须在投资组合中拥有一些黄金。
I think you have to have a little bit of gold in your portfolio.
记录每日观察的主要原因，是因为我想知道我在哪里错了。
The main reason I write the daily observations is because I want to know where I'm wrong.
做好大事比把小事做得完美更重要。
It's more important to do big things well than to do the small things perfectly.
超然冥想可能是我取得任何成功的最重要原因。
Transcendental meditation has probably been the single most important reason for whatever success I've had.
不要让你需要正确的欲望超过你需要发现真相的欲望。
Don't let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what's true.
不要把可能性误认为概率，一切皆有可能，重要的是概率。
Don't mistake possibilities for probabilities. Anything is possible. It's the probabilities that matter.
找到十五个或更多良好的、互不相关的回报流，就能将投资风险降低约80%。
Finding 15 or more good, uncorrelated return streams can reduce portfolio risk by about 80%.
现金不是好的投资，相对于通胀它每年可能损失2%甚至更多。
Cash is not going to be a good investment. In relation to inflation, it'll probably lose 2% a year and maybe more.
最大的错误是不愿意接受错误。
The biggest mistake is not accepting mistakes.
与我自己的观点相比，现实的重要性永远更高。
Reality is more important than my opinion of it.
把自己变成一个机器，把问题像机器一样拆解，然后再组装回去。
Become like a machine: take problems apart and reassemble them.
记住，最好的东西看起来一开始就像是糟糕的主意。
Remember that the best things look like bad ideas at the beginning.
不要混淆可能性和概率。
Don't confuse possibility with probability.
如果你无法识别自己认知的边界，那么你比没有边界更糟糕。
If you can't identify the boundaries of your understanding, you're worse off than having no boundaries.
投资的圣杯是要找到15个或更多低相关性的优质回报流。
The holy grail of investing is to find fifteen or more good, uncorrelated return streams.
痛苦加上反思就等于进步。
Pain plus reflection equals progress.
如果你一年前回看自己时不觉得当时很愚蠢，说明你这一年没有学到什么东西。
If you don't look back at yourself and think how stupid you were a year ago, you must not have learned much.
投资的真正敌人是你自己的弱点——贪婪时买入，恐惧时卖出。
投资最难的不是买入，而是拿住——波动会反复测试你的信仰。
找到十五个互不相关的收益流，能显著改善你的风险收益比。
把原则写下来，能大幅提高你在相似情境下的决策质量。
知道自己不知道什么，比知道什么更重要。
靠水晶球预言谋生的人，最终会吃到玻璃渣。
He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.
做好分散投资，是投资成功最重要的事。
Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do to invest well.
想要有效，就不能让'我对'的需求，压过'求真'的需求。
To be effective you must not let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what's true.