塞斯·卡拉曼

塞斯·卡拉曼

Seth Klarman
安全边际守护者价值投资美国 · 1957年生

波士顿Baupost基金创始人,著有投资经典《安全边际》。坚守格雷厄姆式的价值投资理念,注重风险控制和安全边际,是当代最受尊敬的价值投资者之一。

经典名言

96 条名言

价值投资看上去简单,但实践起来很难。

Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

价值投资看上去简单,但实践起来很难。

Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

耐心是价值投资者最宝贵的资产。

Patience is one of the most valuable assets a value investor can have.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义心态修炼价值投资

投资者所能拥有的最大优势,就是长期投资的心态。

The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

大多数投资者主要关注回报——能赚多少,却很少关注风险——会亏多少。

Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, how much they can make, and pay little attention to risk, how much they can lose.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

避免亏损是确保盈利的最可靠途径。

The avoidance of loss is the surest way to ensure a profitable outcome.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

价值投资是以显著低于内在价值的价格买入证券,并持有到更多价值被实现。

Value investing is the discipline of buying securities at a significant discount from their current underlying values and holding them until more of their value is realized.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

无法对股票进行估值的人不应持有股票,正如无法评估房产价值的人不应买房一样。

An investor who cannot value a business has no business investing in it.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

保留充足的现金不是为了避险而无所作为,而是为了在机会来临时有足够的弹药出击。

Holding cash is not inaction for safety's sake — it's keeping dry powder to strike when opportunity presents itself.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

成功的价值投资需要三种品质:铁一般的纪律、无限的耐心和逆流而上的勇气。

Successful value investing requires three qualities: iron discipline, infinite patience, and the courage to go against the crowd.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

你不需要精确预测未来,你只需要确保自己为大多数可能的糟糕结果做好了准备。

You don't need to predict the future precisely — you need to ensure you're prepared for most of the possible bad outcomes.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

价值投资不是精确计算的科学,而是为不确定性留出充分缓冲的艺术。

Value investing is not a science of precise calculation, but an art of building in sufficient buffers for uncertainty.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

在投资中,空仓等待本身就是在做决策,而且往往是一个很好的决策。

In investing, choosing to hold cash is itself a decision — and often a very good one.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

价值投资的核心理念是以低于内在价值的价格买入,而这个差额就是你的安全边际。

The core idea of value investing is buying below intrinsic value, and that difference is your margin of safety.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

投资者常常忘记风险,直到它已经变成损失才想起来。

Investors often forget about risk until it has turned into a loss.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

在大多数情况下,不投资比投资更好。等待好机会比追逐平庸的机会更重要。

In most situations, not investing is better than investing. Waiting for good opportunities is more important than chasing mediocre ones.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

当没有值得投资的机会时,最明智的做法是持有现金。

When there are no worthy investment opportunities, the wisest thing to do is hold cash.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

价值投资者绝不随波逐流。他们独自判断价值,然后在市场远离价值时行动。

Value investors never follow the crowd. They independently judge value and act when the market diverges from it.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

价值投资的本质是寻找价格显著低于内在价值的资产,并坚持安全边际原则。

The essence of value investing is finding assets priced significantly below intrinsic value and adhering to the margin of safety principle.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

安全边际是投资中最重要的概念。它为判断错误和意外风险提供了缓冲空间。

Margin of safety is the most important concept in investing. It provides a buffer for errors in judgment and unexpected risks.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

大多数投资者的失败不是因为无知,而是因为自以为知道。谦逊是投资中最珍贵的品质。

Most investors fail not out of ignorance, but because they believe they know. Humility is the most precious quality in investing.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

在投资中,不亏损比赚钱更紧迫。避免永久性资本损失是第一优先级。

In investing, avoiding loss is more urgent than making money. Avoiding permanent capital loss is the first priority.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

市场无效时才是价值投资者的黄金机会。当恐慌蔓延、价格远低于价值时,勇敢买入。

Market inefficiency is the golden opportunity for value investors. When panic spreads and prices are far below value, buy bravely.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

大多数投资者失败的原因不是因为他们不够聪明,而是因为他们不愿意等待。

Most investors fail not because they aren't smart enough, but because they aren't willing to wait.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

价值投资的核心理念是安全边际——只有当价格远低于价值时才买入,为错误和不确定性留出缓冲。

The core concept of value investing is margin of safety — buy only when price is far below value, leaving a buffer for errors and uncertainty.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

在投资中,避免亏损比追求盈利更重要。不亏钱是赚钱的前提。

In investing, avoiding losses is more important than pursuing gains. Not losing money is the prerequisite for making money.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

当市场上没有人愿意买入时,往往是最好的买入时机。流动性越差,机会越好。

When no one in the market wants to buy, it's often the best time to buy. The worse the liquidity, the better the opportunity.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

投资不需要每次都击中靶心,只需要在大多数时候避开灾难。保守是长期成功的基石。

Investing doesn't require hitting the bullseye every time — just avoiding disaster most of the time. Conservatism is the cornerstone of long-term success.

📖 安全边际 (1991)

价值投资不是寻找'便宜货'的技术,而是一种全面的人生哲学——它教导你耐心、纪律和独立思考。

Value investing is not a technique for finding bargains — it's a comprehensive philosophy of life that teaches patience, discipline, and independent thinking.

📖 《安全边际》中关于价值投资哲学的论述 (1991)
心态修炼价值投资

投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'——这四个字摧毁的财富比任何市场崩盘都多。

The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time is different.' These four words have destroyed more wealth than any market crash.

📖 《安全边际》关于市场周期及投资者心理的警示 (1991)
市场认知风险管理

你不必在每场游戏中都参与。事实上,只参与那些你明显有优势的游戏,是长期获胜的唯一途径。

You don't have to play every game. In fact, only playing the games where you have a clear edge is the only path to long-term victory.

📖 《安全边际》关于机会选择和能力圈的观点 (1991)
能力圈风险管理

投资中最被低估的品质是'强烈的风险厌恶'——看起来像胆小,实际上正是这种'胆小'保护了你。

The most underrated quality in investing is strong risk aversion — it looks like cowardice, but that very 'cowardice' is what protects you.

📖 《安全边际》及卡拉曼投资哲学 (1991)
心态修炼风险管理

不要用借来的钱投资。杠杆是唯一能让一个正确的判断变成一个灾难的东西——因为它会在你坚持到黎明之前就让你死在黑暗里。

Never invest with borrowed money. Leverage is the only thing that can turn a correct judgment into a disaster — because it can kill you in the dark before you make it to dawn.

📖 《安全边际》关于杠杆风险的严格警告 (1991)
风险管理价值投资

投资者拥有的最大优势就是长期视野。

The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.

📖 《安全边际》(Margin of Safety) (1991)
长期主义价值投资

大多数投资者主要关注回报,但对风险的关注远比回报重要。

Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, but a focus on risk is far more important.

📖 《安全边际》(Margin of Safety) (1991)
风险管理价值投资

价值投资的本质,是逆向思维与计算器的结合。

Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.

📖 《安全边际》(Margin of Safety) (1991)
逆向思维价值投资

投资的终极目标不是赚最多的钱,而是赚足够的钱,同时避免毁灭性的损失。

📖 包普斯特基金致投资者信及公开演讲 (2008)
心态修炼风险管理

持有现金在牛市中看起来像放弃机会,在熊市中却是最宝贵的资产。

📖 《安全边际》(Margin of Safety)及包普斯特致投资者信 (1991)
逆向思维市场认知风险管理

投资的首要原则不是赚钱,而是不要亏钱。所有成功的投资策略都建立在这个基础之上。

The first principle of investing is not to make money, but to avoid losing money.

📖 《安全边际》第1章 (1991)
风险管理价值投资

安全边际让投资从一种预测游戏变成一种风险管理活动。

A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility.

📖 《安全边际》第3章 (1991)
风险管理价值投资

大多数投资者最大的错误在于把价格当作价值的指标,而不是利用价格偏离价值的机会。

The prevailing view is that the market is efficient. I disagree. The market is often inefficient, and it is the exploitation of these inefficiencies that provides the returns.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
逆向思维市场认知

持有大量现金不是保守,而是为机会做好准备。当别人被迫卖出时,手里有现金的人就成了拍卖会上唯一的出价者。

Holding cash in the absence of opportunity is a sound strategy. Cash gives you the ability to buy when others are forced to sell.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
逆向思维风险管理

投资的本质不是预测未来,而是为不确定的未来做准备。

Investing is the discipline of relative selection. It is about the process of identifying undervalued securities, not forecasting the future.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
市场认知风险管理

将投资视为一种概率游戏而非确定性游戏。你不需要每次都对,你只需要在概率站在你这边时下重注。

View investing as a game of probabilities, not certainties. You don't need to be right every time; you just need to bet heavily when the odds are in your favor.

📖 《安全边际》中关于风险与回报的讨论 (1991)
市场认知风险管理

在投资界,耐心不仅是一种美德,更是一种最被低估的竞争优势——当所有人都在追逐热点时,能静下来的人已经赢了一半。

In investing, patience is not just a virtue; it's the most underrated competitive advantage. When everyone is chasing hot trends, the one who can sit still has already won half the battle.

📖 《安全边际》和鲍波斯特基金年度信 (1991)
长期主义心态修炼

当市场陷入恐慌时,最被嫌弃的角落往往蕴藏着最丰富的宝藏。众人都避之不及的地方,才是价值投资者应该去的地方。

When markets panic, the most despised corners often hold the richest treasures. The places everyone is running away from are precisely where value investors should go.

📖 《安全边际》和2008-2009年金融危机操作后的总结 (1991)
逆向思维价值投资

永远不要混淆运气和技能。在牛市中,每只猴子都是股神。只有潮水退去,才能分辨谁穿了泳裤。

Never confuse luck with skill. In a bull market, every monkey is a stock market genius. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
市场认知心态修炼

真正的多样化不在于持有大量不同的证券,而在于持有彼此不相关的资产。相关性才是多样化的灵魂。

True diversification is not about holding a large number of different securities. It's about holding assets that are uncorrelated with each other. Correlation is the soul of diversification.

📖 《安全边际》中关于投资组合管理的讨论 (1991)
风险管理

耐心是价值投资者最宝贵的资产。

Patience is one of the most valuable assets a value investor can have.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义

价值投资是寻找以显著低于内在价值的价格交易的证券。

Value investing is finding securities trading at significantly below intrinsic value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

安全边际是你为错误留出的空间。

Margin of safety is the space you leave for mistakes.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

在投资中,耐心比聪明更重要。

In investing, patience is more important than intelligence.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义

价值投资要求你在别人不愿意投资的时候投资。

Value investing requires you to invest when others are unwilling to invest.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

最大的投资错误往往来自于试图预测宏观经济。

The biggest investment mistakes often come from trying to predict the macro economy.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
市场认知

价值投资的核心是寻找被市场忽视的公司。

The core of value investing is finding companies ignored by the market.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

投资成功的关键是风险管理,而不是追求回报。

The key to investment success is risk management, not pursuing returns.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
风险管理

价值投资者应该学会利用市场的情绪波动。

Value investors should learn to exploit market emotional fluctuations.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
市场认知

在投资中,损失厌恶是理性决策的最大障碍。

In investing, loss aversion is the biggest obstacle to rational decision-making.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
心态修炼

价值投资的回报来自于价格向价值的回归。

Value investing returns come from price converging to value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

投资者应该关注那些有持久竞争优势的公司。

Investors should focus on companies with durable competitive advantages.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

在市场恐慌时,价值投资者应该寻找机会。

When the market panics, value investors should look for opportunities.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

价值投资需要时间和耐心。

Value investing requires time and patience.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义

投资于那些有强大现金流的公司。

Invest in companies with strong cash flows.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

在投资中,安全边际是防止错误的最好保护。

In investing, margin of safety is the best protection against mistakes.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

价值投资者不应该试图预测市场时机。

Value investors should not try to predict market timing.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
市场认知

好的投资往往来自于逆向思考。

Good investments often come from reverse thinking.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

在投资中,不要把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

In investing, do not put all your eggs in one basket.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
风险管理

价值投资的核心是找到价格低于价值的证券。

The core of value investing is finding securities priced below their value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

投资者应该学会区分价格和价值。

Investors should learn to distinguish between price and value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

在投资中,最重要的是不要亏钱。

In investing, the most important thing is not to lose money.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
风险管理

价值投资者应该关注公司的基本面。

Value investors should focus on company fundamentals.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

投资于那些有稳定商业模式的公司。

Invest in companies with stable business models.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

在市场贪婪时,价值投资者应该保持谨慎。

When the market is greedy, value investors should stay cautious.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

价值投资的成功来自于耐心等待价格回归价值。

Value investing success comes from patiently waiting for price to return to value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义

投资者应该学会在压力下保持冷静。

Investors should learn to stay calm under pressure.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
心态修炼

在投资中,便宜是硬道理。

In investing, cheapness is hard truth.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

价值投资者应该关注长期价值,而不是短期价格波动。

Value investors should focus on long-term value, not short-term price fluctuations.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
长期主义

投资于那些有优秀管理层的公司。

Invest in companies with excellent management.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

在投资中,风险管理应该放在第一位。

In investing, risk management should come first.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
风险管理

价值投资者不应该跟随市场共识。

Value investors should not follow market consensus.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

投资成功的关键是找到有安全边际的投资机会。

The key to investment success is finding investment opportunities with margin of safety.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

在投资中,情绪是最大的敌人。

In investing, emotions are the biggest enemy.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
心态修炼

价值投资者应该学会利用市场的非理性。

Value investors should learn to exploit market irrationality.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
市场认知

投资于那些资产负债表健康的公司。

Invest in companies with healthy balance sheets.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
企业分析

在投资中,最重要的品质是耐心和纪律。

In investing, the most important qualities are patience and discipline.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
心态修炼

价值投资的回报来自于价值发现。

Value investing returns come from value discovery.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

投资者应该学会在别人恐惧时买入。

Investors should learn to buy when others are fearful.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
逆向思维

在投资中,便宜买好货是最好的策略。

In investing, buying good things cheaply is the best strategy.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

价值投资者应该关注公司的内在价值。

Value investors should focus on company intrinsic value.

📖 安全边际 (1991)
价值投资

投资的第一要务是“下跌保护”。上涨的时候谁都能赚钱——“退潮的时候还没淹死,才是真本事。”

Most investors are oriented toward maximizing return. We focus first on risk, namely the risk of loss.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

大多数基金经理不是不想做好,而是被“短期排名”绑架了。三个月跑输客户就撤资——“所以他们都变成了短期投机者”。

Most institutional investors are trapped in a short-term performance derby.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

“流动性”是一个幻觉。需要它的时候,它总是不在。

Liquidity is an illusion. When you need it most, it disappears.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)

在“好年景”里控制风险,比在坏年景里亡羊补牢重要得多。风和日丽的时候才是检查屋顶漏水的最佳时机。

Risk control is easiest to implement when it seems least necessary.

📖 Baupost致投资者信 (2015)

价值投资本质上就是一件事:“买便宜货”。不是买好公司、好行业、好管理层——那些都对,但“价格不对就全白搭”。

Value investing is at its core the purchase of bargains.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
价值投资

价值投资是纪律与勇气的结合:在别人恐慌抛售时,用严谨的分析接住便宜货。

Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
价值投资

避免亏损,应当是每个投资者的首要目标。

Avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor.

📖 《安全边际》 (1991)
风险管理