逆向思维
关于独立思考、反人性、逆向投资
共 113 条名言
别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
反过来想，总是反过来想。
Invert, always invert.
别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
反过来想，总是反过来想。
Invert, always invert.
市场永远处于不确定和波动之中，通过押注出乎意料的事物来赚钱。
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
你不能通过做和别人一样的事情来获得卓越的业绩。
You can't do the same things others do and expect to outperform.
市场行为越愚蠢，企业投资者的机会就越大。
The more foolish the market's behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business investor.
当你听到专家的观点和市场的狂热保持一致时，特别要保持警惕。
Be especially wary when you hear experts echoing the market's frenzy.
在投资中，你必须独立思考，逆向而动。
In investing, you must think independently and act in the opposite direction.
别人同意与否，与你是否正确毫无关系。重要的是你的推理和事实是否正确。
The fact that other people agree or disagree with you doesn't make you right or wrong. Only the facts and your reasoning do.
把问题反过来想，总是反过来想。如果你想知道怎样才能过上悲惨的一生，那很简单：嫉妒、怨恨、不靠谱。
Invert, always invert: If you want to know how to live a miserable life, it's easy — be envious, resentful, and unreliable.
最好的想法往往来自最激烈的辩论。如果你不能容忍别人质疑你的观点，你的观点就不值得被持有。
The best ideas often come from the most heated debates. If you can't tolerate having your ideas challenged, your ideas aren't worth holding.
如果我知道我会死在哪里，我就永远不去那个地方。
All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.
市场总是错的。
Markets are always wrong.
情况越糟糕，扭转局面所需的努力就越少，上行空间就越大。
第二层次思维：第一层次思维说这是一家好公司买吧；第二层次思维说这是一家好公司但人人都知道所以股价可能已经太高了卖吧。
价值投资的本质，是逆向思维与计算器的结合。
Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.
持有现金在牛市中看起来像放弃机会，在熊市中却是最宝贵的资产。
别人处理他们的事务越不谨慎，我们处理自己的事务就必须越谨慎。
The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.
一旦我们意识到认知的不完美是人类处境的组成部分，犯错就不再那么羞耻，不改正错误才是。
Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.
历史总是在重复，因为人性从未改变。
History repeats itself because human nature never changes.
投资中最危险的一句话就是'这次不一样'。
The most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'.
卓越的投资不是来自买好的东西，而是来自把东西买好。
Investment brilliance isn't delivered by buying good things, but by buying things well.
不要在公开信息已经充分反映的股票上浪费时间——你的优势必须来自别人看不到的东西。
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
大多数投资者最大的错误在于把价格当作价值的指标，而不是利用价格偏离价值的机会。
The prevailing view is that the market is efficient. I disagree. The market is often inefficient, and it is the exploitation of these inefficiencies that provides the returns.
持有大量现金不是保守，而是为机会做好准备。当别人被迫卖出时，手里有现金的人就成了拍卖会上唯一的出价者。
Holding cash in the absence of opportunity is a sound strategy. Cash gives you the ability to buy when others are forced to sell.
我们之所以成功，不是因为我们解决了多少难题，而是因为我们避开了它们。聪明人知道自己的局限，笨蛋才会挑战所有困难。
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
华尔街有一条铁律：如果每个人都喜欢某样东西，那么你最好避开它。大众的一致看好往往是泡沫的信号。
The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.
在一个增长缓慢甚至衰退的行业中，经营良好的公司反而是绝佳的投资标的——因为竞争对手正在离场。
A good company in a lousy industry is a far better investment than a lousy company in a great industry.
不要追逐最热门的行业中最热门的股票。当一只股票连出租车司机都在推荐的时候，买点已经过去了。
Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon. By the time you hear about the hottest stock from your barber, it's too late.
泡沫通常不是从外部被人捅破的，而是从内部因为自身逻辑崩溃而塌陷的。
Bubbles don't burst from the outside. They collapse from within when the narrative sustaining them breaks down.
不确定性越大，潜在的回报就越大——前提是你比其他人更早看清了不确定性的走向。
The greater the uncertainty, the greater the potential reward — but only if you see the direction of that uncertainty before others do.
在投资中，好消息不一定是好投资——如果市场已经提前消化了所有好消息，买入反而会亏钱。
In investing, good news doesn't necessarily mean a good investment. If the market has already priced in all the good news, buying can still lose you money.
在周期的顶部，最容易做的事情往往最危险；在周期的底部，最不敢做的事情往往最有利可图。敢于逆势需要极大的勇气。
At the top of a cycle, the easiest things to do are the most dangerous. At the bottom, the hardest things to do are the most profitable. Contrarian courage is rare and valuable.
第二层次思维是优秀投资者的标志：第一层次看'这是好公司'，第二层次看'市场对这个好公司的定价是否已经过高'。
Second-level thinking is the hallmark of superior investors. First-level says 'this is a good company'; second-level says 'has the market already priced in that goodness?'
当市场陷入恐慌时，最被嫌弃的角落往往蕴藏着最丰富的宝藏。众人都避之不及的地方，才是价值投资者应该去的地方。
When markets panic, the most despised corners often hold the richest treasures. The places everyone is running away from are precisely where value investors should go.
市场永远处于不确定和波动之中，通过押注出乎意料的事物来赚钱。
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
你不能通过做和别人一样的事情来获得卓越的业绩。
You can't do the same things others do and expect to outperform.
当你周围的人都在做愚蠢的事情时，保持理智是一种竞争优势。
Being sane when everyone around you is acting crazy is a competitive advantage.
当市场下跌时，投资者不应该恐慌，而应该看到机会。
When the market falls, investors should not panic but see opportunities.
最成功的投资往往是在别人都不看好的时候做出的。
The most successful investments are often made when no one else is optimistic.
投资者应该学会在市场恐慌时买入，在市场贪婪时卖出。
Investors should learn to buy when the market panics and sell when the market is greedy.
投资者应该避免盲目跟风，要独立思考。
Investors should avoid blindly following the crowd and think independently.
不要因为别人都在买就跟着买，要有独立判断。
Do not buy just because everyone else is buying; have independent judgment.
在熊市中寻找机会，在牛市中保持冷静。
Look for opportunities in bear markets and stay calm in bull markets.
在市场过热时保持怀疑，在市场恐慌时保持勇气。
Remain skeptical when the market is overheating, and courageous when the market panics.
逆向投资意味着在别人卖出时买入，在别人买入时卖出。
Contrarian investing means buying when others sell and selling when others buy.
成功的投资需要你能够在别人恐惧时保持冷静。
Successful investing requires you to stay calm when others are fearful.
好的投资者在别人不想要的时候买入。
Good investors buy when others do not want it.
好的投资者会在市场过度乐观时变得谨慎。
Good investors become cautious when the market is overly optimistic.
成功的投资者是那些能够独立思考的人。
Successful investors are those who can think independently.
成功的投资者知道什么时候应该逆向而行。
Successful investors know when they should go against the grain.
在市场恐慌时买入，在市场兴奋时卖出。
Buy when the market panics, sell when the market is excited.
价值投资要求你在别人不愿意投资的时候投资。
Value investing requires you to invest when others are unwilling to invest.
在市场恐慌时，价值投资者应该寻找机会。
When the market panics, value investors should look for opportunities.
好的投资往往来自于逆向思考。
Good investments often come from reverse thinking.
在市场贪婪时，价值投资者应该保持谨慎。
When the market is greedy, value investors should stay cautious.
价值投资者不应该跟随市场共识。
Value investors should not follow market consensus.
投资者应该学会在别人恐惧时买入。
Investors should learn to buy when others are fearful.
比特币是一种反常的发明，我永远不会投资它。
Bitcoin is an aberrant invention, and I will never invest in it.
当一位声誉卓著的CEO去管理一家以糟糕经济特性闻名的企业时，最终不变的是企业的声誉。
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
如果你想要说服别人，要诉诸利益，而非诉诸理性。
If you would persuade, appeal to interest and not to reason.
如果你花13分钟研究宏观经济，你就浪费了10分钟。
If you spend more than 13 minutes a year on economic forecasting, you've wasted 10 minutes.
经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富，就要认清假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出。
Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies.
我生来一贫如洗，但决不能死时仍旧贫困潦倒。
I was born into poverty, but I will not die that way.
卓越的投资不是来自买入好东西，而是来自买得好。
Superior investing is not about buying good things, but buying things well.
当别人都认为某种东西有风险时，他们的不愿购买反而把价格压到了几乎没有风险的水平。
When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it is not risky at all.
永远不要在听到好消息时买入，也不要在听到坏消息时卖出。
Never buy on good news and never sell on bad news.
持有现金在市场狂热时让人不安，在市场恐慌时让人安心。
Cash is uncomfortable to hold during market manias, but incredibly comforting during panics.
当世界给聪明人发牌时，你最好不是那个最笨的人，而是那个最耐心的人。
When the world deals cards to smart people, you better not be the dumbest but the most patient.
激励机制是世界上最强大的力量。给我看激励机制，我就能告诉你结果。
Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
避免愚蠢比追求聪明更重要。
It is more important to avoid stupidity than to seek brilliance.
最赚钱的投资往往来自于那些你觉得无聊甚至不想研究的公司。
The best investments often come from companies that are boring and you don't even want to research them.
一旦我们意识到人类认知在塑造事件中扮演的角色，我们就发现了一个全新的世界。
Once we realize the role that human cognition plays in shaping events, we discover a whole new world.
泡沫不是由估值驱动的，而是由叙事驱动的。
Bubbles are not driven by valuations but by narratives.
在投资中，做到不差并不难，真正的挑战是做到卓越——而卓越需要的是第二层次思维。
In investing, achieving average results is not difficult. The challenge is achieving superior results — and that requires second-level thinking.
便宜货的必要条件是该资产不被看好——不被看好通常意味着它最近表现糟糕。
The necessary condition for a bargain is that the asset is out of favor — which usually means it has performed poorly recently.
持有现金不是缺乏想法，而是等待正确想法的纪律。现金是一种看涨期权——对未来的所有机会。
Holding cash is not a lack of ideas; it is the discipline of waiting for the right idea. Cash is a call option on all future opportunities.
不投资和投资错误一样都是投资决策。什么都不做——当你找不到好机会时——就是正确的决策。
Not investing is as much an investment decision as investing. Doing nothing — when you cannot find good opportunities — is the right decision.
分析一家公司时不要问“我会赚多少钱”，要问“我会怎么亏钱”。
When analyzing a company, don't ask 'How much will I make?' Ask 'How can I lose money?'
不要在一个行业中只选最好的公司——有时候第二名的股价被低估得更厉害。
Don't just pick the best company in an industry — sometimes the number two is more undervalued.
伯克希尔没有正式的收购策略手册。我们的策略就是坐在电话旁等它响。
Berkshire has no formal acquisition strategy manual. Our strategy is to sit by the phone and wait for it to ring.
我非常喜欢“你想吃什么就能吃什么“这个商业模式——前提是你得先有一家糖果店。
I really like the 'you can eat whatever you want' business model — provided you own the candy store first.
如果你想变得聪明，你需要的不是增加智商——而是系统地减少你做蠢事的频率。
If you want to be smart, what you need is not to increase your IQ — but to systematically reduce how often you do stupid things.
任何比你聪明的想法都应该引起你的极度警惕——尤其是当这个想法是从你自己的脑子里蹦出来的时候。
Any idea that seems smarter than you should make you deeply suspicious — especially when it came from your own head.
所谓的最佳买入时机——就是所有人都在卖出而你可以用不到其价值一半的价格买到优质资产的时候。但你不知道那个时刻什么时候来所以你现在就要开始攒钱。
The best time to buy is when everyone is selling and you can get quality assets for less than half their value. But you don't know when that moment will come — so start saving now.
我的哲学不是预测未来——而是识别当前被普遍接受的错误共识。
My philosophy isn't about predicting the future — it's about identifying the currently accepted false consensus.
我一直在寻找某样东西的定价里有没有隐含一个逻辑上的不可能——如果有那我就找到了交易。
I'm always looking for whether the pricing of something contains a logical impossibility — if it does, I've found my trade.
我的基金叫量子基金——因为量子物理学教会我一个道理：观测行为会改变被观测的对象。在金融市场上投资者的预期会改变市场本身。
My fund is called Quantum Fund because quantum physics taught me one thing: the act of observation changes what is being observed. In financial markets, investors' expectations change the market itself.
在桥水我们不做“这事不可能出错“的假设。我们做“如果它出错了我们会怎么发现它“的假设。
At Bridgewater we don't assume 'this can't go wrong.' We assume 'if it goes wrong, how will we find out?'
我职业生涯中见过的最严重的投资损失——不是来自买入了错误的资产而是来自在正确的资产上用了过高的杠杆然后被迫在错误的时间卖出。
The worst investment losses I've seen in my career didn't come from buying the wrong asset — they came from using too much leverage on the right asset and being forced to sell at the wrong time.
投资者最大的悲剧不是不知道什么是好投资——而是知道什么是好投资但在它最便宜的时候不敢买。
The greatest tragedy for investors isn't not knowing what a good investment is — it's knowing what a good investment is but being too scared to buy it when it's cheapest.
优质资产可以变成糟糕的投资——如果价格太高。垃圾资产也可以是绝佳的投资——如果价格足够低。
A great asset can be a terrible investment — if the price is too high. And a junk asset can be a brilliant investment — if the price is low enough.
告诉我会死在哪里，我就永远不会去那个地方。
Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.
如果你做的事所有人都理解，你做的事就不够好。
If what you're doing is understood by everyone, you're not doing it well enough.
反过来想，总是反过来想。如果想帮助印度，先问：什么会毁了印度？然后避开它。
Invert always invert. Turn a situation or problem upside down.
如果一条路通往痛苦和失败，我会把那条路仔细研究一遍，然后坚定地朝相反方向走。
If a path leads to misery and failure I will study it carefully and then go the opposite way.
你买一只股票的理由不应该是它一直在涨，而是你对这家公司有不同于市场的独到认知。
You dont buy a stock because it has been going up. You buy it because you know something about the company that the market doesnt fully appreciate.
市场总是错的。它的偏见和趋势就是投资者的机会——你需要在趋势被大众察觉之前发现它。
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux.
如果你想成为一个成功的投资者，你必须独立思考。共识通常都是错的，你必须逆着人群的方向走。
To be a successful investor you have to bet against the consensus and be right.
第二层次思维是超越平均的关键。
Second-level thinking is the key to being above average.
你的对错，不取决于有多少人同意你。你正确，是因为你的事实正确、你的推理正确。
长期来看，人们通过努力“不犯蠢”获得的好处，远比通过努力“变得聪明”获得的好处大得多。
市场就像一个钟摆，永远在“贵得离谱”和“便宜得离谱”之间摆动。聪明的投资者从乐观主义者手中买入，卖给悲观主义者。
第一层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，买它。”第二层次思维说：“这是一家好公司，但所有人都知道它是好公司了，所以价格已经太高了——卖它。”
我最想知道的事情是我会死在哪里，然后坚决不去那里。
All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.
当事情看起来好到不像真的时，它们通常不是真的。
When things look too good to be true, they usually are.
你不会因为“大家同意你”就对，也不会因为“大家反对你”就错。你的对错取决于你的“事实和逻辑”。
You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.
“避免愚蠢”比追求聪明重要得多。长期来看，一个人不做什么，比做了什么更能决定结果。
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
当一个行业“热得发烫”的时候，最好冷一下。真正的好机会从来不在聚光灯下，而在“阴影里”。
The hottest sectors are rarely where you find the best long-term investments. Look where others aren't looking.
股市下跌时，如果你持有的股票基本面没有变化，那下跌只是给了你更好的买入机会。
If the fundamentals of the stocks you hold haven't changed, a market decline is just a better buying opportunity.
第二层次思维者要考虑的远比第一层次思维者多得多。
Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
告诉我我会死在哪里，我就永远不会去那个地方。这是最简单的逆向思维——与其想怎么成功，不如想怎么避免失败。
Tell me where I'm going to die, and I'll never go there. That's the simplest form of inversion — instead of thinking about how to succeed, think about how to avoid failure.