菲利普·费雪

股票市场充斥着知道一切的价格但不知道任何东西的价值的人。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

股票市场充斥着知道一切的价格但不知道任何东西的价值的人。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

对一家公司了解得太少是一种危险，了解得不多却自以为了解很多更加危险。

Knowing a great deal about a few things is better than knowing a little about a lot of things.

股市里到处都是知道一切价格、却不知道任何价值的人。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

我不要很多的好投资，我要的是少数几个卓越的投资。

I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.

如果买入普通股时做对了功课，那么卖出它的时机几乎是——永远不要。

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never.

最大的投资回报属于那些发现少数公司能在多年间以远高于行业平均水平增长的人。

The greatest investment reward comes to those who by good luck or good sense find the occasional company that over many years grows far more than the industry as a whole.

保守型投资者在夜晚安然入睡的能力，比他们的投资回报率更为重要。

The conservative investor is one who sleeps well at night, regardless of what happens in the market.

找公司的客户、供应商和竞争对手聊聊——这种'闲聊法'比看一百份年报都有用。

Go talk to the customers, suppliers, and competitors. This 'scuttlebutt' method is worth more than a hundred annual reports.

真正优秀的公司，不仅现在做得好，更重要的是未来十年它还会继续做得更好。

A truly outstanding company is one that is doing well now and is likely to do even better for the next ten years.

投资中最难学的不是何时买入，而是何时什么也不做。

The hardest thing to learn in investing is not when to buy, but when to do nothing.

不要试图抓住每一个机会，只需要抓住少数几个最好、最有把握的机会就够了。

Don't try to catch every opportunity — just catch a handful of the very best ones.

对一家公司了解得越透彻，你才越有能力在逆境中坚守而不是在恐慌中割肉。

The deeper your knowledge of a company, the more able you are to hold through adversity rather than sell in panic.

最赚钱的股票通常来自那些大多数人未曾关注的领域。

The most profitable stocks usually come from areas that most people have not paid attention to.

不要因为一只股票的价格已经涨了很多就卖出它。价格高低本身不是卖出理由，企业前景才是。

Don't sell a stock just because its price has risen a lot. Price alone is not a reason to sell; the company's prospects are.

如果一家公司能够持续雇佣优秀人才，那么它在未来必然会有杰出的表现。

If a company can consistently hire outstanding people, it will inevitably have outstanding performance in the future.

投资中最重要的品质不是智力，而是耐心。

The most important quality in investing is not intelligence, but patience.

闲聊法是了解一家公司真实状况的最好方式——从竞争对手、供应商和客户那里获取信息。

The scuttlebutt method is the best way to understand a company's true condition—getting information from competitors, suppliers, and customers.

找到一家真正优秀的公司，然后坚定持有，比频繁买卖平庸公司要明智得多。

Finding a truly outstanding company and holding it firmly is far wiser than frequently trading mediocre ones.

不要因为股票便宜就买入，而要因为它值得才持有。品质远比价格更重要。

Don't buy a stock because it's cheap; hold it because it's worth it. Quality matters far more than price.

最好的投资机会来自于那些你深入了解的公司，而不是市场热点。

The best investment opportunities come from companies you deeply understand, not market trends.

一个公司真正的价值在于它未来的增长潜力，而不仅仅是当前的利润数据。

A company's true value lies in its future growth potential, not just its current profit figures.

闲聊法是发现优秀投资标的的有效途径——与行业人士交谈，了解真实的商业动态。

The scuttlebutt method is an effective way to discover outstanding investment targets — talk with industry people to understand real business dynamics.

不要因为一只股票已经涨了很多就卖出。只要公司基本面还在改善，就继续持有。

Don't sell a stock just because it has risen a lot. As long as the fundamentals are improving, continue holding.

买入一家公司之前，应该尽可能多地了解它的管理层。管理层是公司成败的关键。

Before buying a company, you should learn as much as possible about its management. Management is the key to success or failure.

真正的投资收益来自于长期持有优秀公司的股票，而不是频繁交易。

Real investment returns come from holding stocks of outstanding companies over long periods, not from frequent trading.

闲聊法是了解一家公司的最佳途径。和公司的客户、供应商、前员工聊天，你能了解到报表上看不到的真相。

The scuttlebutt method is the best way to understand a company. Chat with customers, suppliers, and former employees to learn truths you can't see in reports.

判断一家公司是否优秀，要看它是否有超越竞争对手的产品或服务，以及是否在研发上持续投入。

To judge whether a company is outstanding, check if it has products or services superior to competitors and whether it consistently invests in R&D.

不要问'这只股票能不能涨'，要问'这家公司五年后会比现在强多少'。如果答案是'强很多'，股价自然会跟上来。

Don't ask 'will this stock go up?' Ask 'how much stronger will this company be in five years?' If the answer is 'much stronger,' the stock will follow.

如果一家公司你需要每天盯着股价才能安心，那说明你根本不了解这家公司——你对它的信任只是建立在K线图上。

If you need to check a company's stock price every day to feel comfortable, you don't truly understand the company — your trust is built only on a chart.

你的投资组合里不需要50只股票。5到10家你真正理解的公司，比50家你一知半解的公司要好得多。

You don't need 50 stocks in your portfolio. Five to ten companies you truly understand are far better than fifty you barely know.

管理层质量是一家公司最重要的护城河。伟大的管理者可以把一家平庸的企业变成优秀的企业，而糟糕的管理者可以把一家优秀的企业拖入深渊。

Management quality is a company's most important moat. Great managers can turn an average business into an excellent one, while poor managers can drag an excellent business into the abyss.

在买入之前，你应该已经想好在什么情况下会卖出。如果你不能在买之前写好'卖出条件'，那你就不应该买。

Before buying, you should already know when you'll sell. If you can't write down your 'sell conditions' before buying, you shouldn't be buying.

股市上充满了这样的人：他们知道所有东西的价格，但对价值一无所知。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

如果买入的时候研究工作做得足够好，卖出那个时机几乎永远不会到来。

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never.

我不要大量的好投资，我要少数几个杰出的投资。

I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.

用闲聊法来了解一家公司——和竞争对手、供应商、客户、前员工聊天。

保守的投资者在晚上睡得着觉。

真正伟大的公司不需要考虑卖出时机，因为它们的成长永无止境。

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never.

在投资中，闲聊是一种被严重低估的研究工具。

The business 'grapevine' is a highly worthwhile source of investment information.

如果你对一家公司的管理层没什么好感，那就不要买它的股票。

The management of a company is a vital factor in the investment equation.

不要在公开信息已经充分反映的股票上浪费时间——你的优势必须来自别人看不到的东西。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

利润率和研发投入是判断一家公司是否拥有护城河的最佳双指标。

The ability to maintain above-average profit margins over a period of years is an indication of a competitive advantage.

一家公司是否伟大，很大程度上取决于管理层是否愿意为未来十年的利益，牺牲眼前三个季度的利润。

Whether a company is great depends largely on whether management is willing to sacrifice three quarters of profit today for the benefit of the next ten years.

寻找那些拥有'无形竞争优势'的公司——这种优势无法被竞争对手通过砸钱快速复制。

Look for companies with intangible competitive advantages — advantages that can't be quickly replicated by competitors just by throwing money at them.

要特别关注那些研发支出占比持续高于行业平均水平的公司。研发不是成本，而是对未来护城河的预先投资。

Pay special attention to companies that consistently spend a higher percentage of revenue on R&D than the industry average. R&D is not a cost — it's an upfront investment in the future moat.

在成长股投资中，买入的时机远没有你买的是什么以及你持有多久重要。好公司会帮你纠正买入价的小错误。

In growth stock investing, the timing of your purchase matters far less than what you buy and how long you hold it. A great company will correct small mistakes in your entry price.

研究一家公司最好的方法不是坐在办公室里看数据，而是走出去和它的客户、供应商、竞争对手面对面交流。

The best way to research a company is not sitting in your office looking at data, but going out and talking to its customers, suppliers, and competitors face to face.

投资于那些有突出管理层和独特竞争优势的公司。

Invest in companies with outstanding management and unique competitive advantages.

对公司管理层的深入了解是成功投资的关键。

Deep understanding of company management is the key to successful investing.

长期来看，最成功的投资是那些有持续竞争优势的公司。

In the long run, the most successful investments are those in companies with sustainable competitive advantages.

了解一家公司最好的方式是和它的竞争对手聊聊。

The best way to understand a company is to talk to its competitors.

寻找那些有强大销售组织的公司。

Look for companies with strong sales organizations.

公司的技术优势是保持竞争优势的关键。

A companys technological advantage is the key to maintaining competitive advantage.

管理层必须有长期视角，不能只关注短期利润。

Management must have a long-term perspective, not just focus on short-term profits.

公司的利润率是评估其竞争力的重要指标。

A companys profit margin is an important indicator of its competitiveness.

寻找那些有定价权的公司。

Look for companies with pricing power.

公司的研发投入是未来增长的保证。

Company R&D investment is the guarantee of future growth.

不要只看财务数据，要了解公司的业务模式。

Do not just look at financial data; understand the companys business model.

投资于那些有良好企业文化和管理团队的公司。

Invest in companies with good corporate culture and management teams.

公司的护城河来自于技术、品牌或规模经济。

A companys moat comes from technology, brand, or economies of scale.

深入研究比广泛浏览更能发现好的投资机会。

In-depth research finds better investment opportunities than broad browsing.

选择那些在一个领域做到极致的公司。

Choose companies that excel in one field.

管理层的诚信和能力是选择公司的首要标准。

Management integrity and ability are the primary criteria for choosing companies.

寻找那些有持续创新能力的企业。

Look for companies with continuous innovation capability.

了解公司的成本结构是评估竞争力的重要部分。

Understanding a companys cost structure is an important part of assessing competitiveness.

公司的行业地位决定了其长期盈利能力。

A companys industry position determines its long-term profitability.

投资于那些有长期竞争优势的公司，而不是追逐短期增长。

Invest in companies with long-term competitive advantages, not chasing short-term growth.

管理层的资本配置能力是企业成功的关键。

Management capital allocation capability is the key to business success.

寻找那些能够从行业增长中受益的公司。

Look for companies that can benefit from industry growth.

公司的客户忠诚度是竞争优势的体现。

Customer loyalty is an embodiment of competitive advantage.

了解管理层如何对待员工可以反映公司的文化。

Understanding how management treats employees can reflect the companys culture.

寻找那些有稳定现金流的公司。

Look for companies with stable cash flows.

公司的治理结构影响其长期发展。

Corporate governance structure affects its long-term development.

投资于那些专注于核心业务的公司。

Invest in companies that focus on their core business.

了解公司如何应对竞争挑战是评估其价值的重要方式。

Understanding how a company responds to competitive challenges is an important way to assess its value.

公司的品牌价值是其护城河的重要组成部分。

Brand value is an important part of a companys moat.

寻找那些有高度客户粘性的企业。

Look for companies with high customer stickiness.

管理层的激励机制应该与股东利益一致。

Management incentive mechanisms should align with shareholder interests.

公司的市场份额增长是其竞争力的体现。

Growth in market share is an embodiment of competitiveness.

投资于那些有明确战略的公司。

Invest in companies with clear strategies.

了解公司的供应链管理可以评估其运营效率。

Understanding a companys supply chain management can assess its operational efficiency.

寻找那些有强大分销网络的公司。

Look for companies with strong distribution networks.

公司的研发效率比研发投入更重要。

R&D efficiency is more important than R&D spending.

投资于那些能够适应变化的组织。

Invest in organizations that can adapt to change.

了解公司的资本开支计划可以预测其未来增长。

Understanding a companys capital expenditure plans can predict its future growth.

寻找那些有持续盈利能力的企业。

Look for companies with sustainable profitability.

公司的竞争优势必须难以复制。

A companys competitive advantage must be difficult to replicate.

股市里到处都是知道价格、却不知道价值的人。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

真正出色的公司数量极少，当找到这样的公司时，要大量买入。

There are a very small number of truly outstanding companies. When you find one, buy in size.

保守型投资者夜夜安枕。

The conservative investor sleeps well.

永远不要在听到好消息时买入，也不要在听到坏消息时卖出。

Never buy on good news and never sell on bad news.

如果你在投资，就要学会耐心。如果你做不到，那就不是投资，只是赌博。

If you are investing, you must learn patience. If you can't, you are not investing — you are gambling.

如果你在一家真正优秀的公司里找到了一个好价格，不要因为涨了20%或30%就卖掉——你卖掉的可能是一个十倍股的前身。

If you find a truly outstanding company at a good price, don't sell just because it's up 20% or 30% — you might be selling the precursor to a ten-bagger.

闲聊调研——和供应商、客户、前员工聊天——是获取投资真相最有效的方式。

The scuttlebutt method — talking to suppliers, customers, and former employees — is the most effective way to get the truth about an investment.

投资者把大部分时间花在担心股价上，而不是去了解他买的那些公司到底在做什么。

Investors spend most of their time worrying about stock prices instead of trying to understand what the companies they own actually do.

寻找那些在研发上持续投入但不依赖一次研发突破的公司——真正伟大的公司每天都在改进一点点。

Look for companies that invest consistently in R&D but don't depend on a single breakthrough — truly great companies improve a little bit every day.

财务报表只能告诉你一家公司过去做了什么，但人——管理层——才能告诉你将来会做什么。

Financial statements can tell you what a company has done in the past, but people — the management — tell you what it will do in the future.

管理层的素质不是你可以从年报中读出来的——你必须和他们的竞争对手、前雇员、客户和供应商交谈。

The quality of management is not something you can read from an annual report — you have to talk to their competitors, former employees, customers, and suppliers.

大多数投资者花太多时间研究“这家公司值多少钱“而花太少时间研究“这家公司未来十年会变成什么样“。

Most investors spend too much time studying 'What is this company worth?' and too little time studying 'What will this company look like in ten years?'

有时候最好的投资行动就是去拜访一次工厂——看看工人脸上有没有笑容。

Sometimes the best investment action is to visit a factory — and see if the workers have smiles on their faces.

我从不因为一家公司规模小就轻视它——事实上我最赚钱的投资大多数都是在它还很小的时候就开始的。

I never dismiss a company just because it's small — in fact, most of my most profitable investments started when the company was still tiny.

我找的不是“便宜的“公司，我找的是估值没有反映其真实成长潜力的公司。这两者完全不同。

I'm not looking for 'cheap' companies. I'm looking for companies whose valuations don't reflect their true growth potential. These two are completely different things.

不要卖出你应该持有的股票，仅仅因为它的价格涨了很多。

Don't sell a stock just because its price has risen a lot.

股市里到处都是知道每样东西价格的人，却很少有人知道每样东西的价值。价格是数字，价值是判断。

我不要很多好的投资，我只要少数几个卓越的。把你的鸡蛋放在少数几个篮子里——然后看好那些篮子。

如果买入一只普通股时做了正确的功课，那么卖出它的时点就是——几乎永远不卖。只要企业基本面没有恶化，时间是最好的朋友。

保守的投资者睡得安稳。但请注意——这里的'保守'不是指买入债券或存款，而是指只买入自己真正理解的企业。

去拜访一个行业的五家公司，向每家公司的管理层提出关于其他四家竞争对手的尖锐问题——十有八九，你会得到一幅令人惊讶的完整而精确的行业全景图。

持有三年以下不叫投资。

Holding for less than three years is not investing.

不要因为市盈率高就认为未来盈利增长已经在股价上得到反映。

Don't assume that a high P/E ratio means future earnings growth is already reflected in the stock price.

找到你喜欢的公司并全力以赴钱自然会水到渠成。

Find a company you like and pour yourself into it; the money will follow naturally.

股市里到处是知道价格的人，但知道价值的人寥寥无几。

如果你不愿意持有一只股票十年之久，那么最好连十分钟都不要持有。

如果你想在投资中做得比别人好，你要么比别人知道得更多，要么比别人更早行动，要么比别人更有耐心。这三样你至少需要占一样。

在投资中，一种健康的怀疑态度比纯粹的乐观或悲观更有价值。

不要试图在最低点买入或在最高点卖出。那是骗子的神话。

找到了好股票，最好的策略就是永远不要卖出。

If you find a great stock, the best strategy is to never sell it.

伟大的公司必须具备三大支柱：低成本的生产能力、强大的市场营销团队，以及持续超出行业平均水平的研发投入。

A great company must have three pillars: low-cost production capability, a strong marketing organization, and outstanding R&D that consistently outpaces the industry.

「闲聊法」的精髓是：走出你的办公室，去和供应商聊、去和客户聊、去和竞争对手聊、去和前员工聊。真相不在财务报表里，在这些人的口中。

The essence of the scuttlebutt method is: get out of your office and talk to suppliers, customers, competitors, and former employees. The truth is not in financial statements — it's in what these people tell you.

不要仅仅因为已经赚了很多钱，就卖掉一只伟大的股票。你持有的时间越长，复利的力量越惊人。

Don't sell a great stock just because you've made a large profit. The longer you hold, the more staggering the power of compounding becomes.

密切关注研发费用的趋势——如果一家公司的研发投入连续三年下降，不管它讲的故事多动听，都要亮红灯。

Watch the trend of R&D spending closely. If a company's R&D spending has been declining for three consecutive years, no matter how good the story sounds, it's a red flag.

股价只在某一个时刻最重要：你买入的时刻。除此之外，每天的涨跌都是噪音。

The stock price matters at exactly one moment: when you buy. All other daily fluctuations are noise.

要判断一家公司是否伟大，去看看它的食堂、停车场和洗手间。员工脸上的表情、停车场的车况、卫生间的干净程度，比财报更诚实。

To judge if a company is great, visit its cafeteria, parking lot, and restrooms. The expressions on employees' faces, the condition of cars in the parking lot, and the cleanliness of restrooms are more honest than financial statements.

集中全力购买那些失宠的公司——因为市场走势或当时市场误判了公司真正价值。

Concentrate on buying companies that are out of favor — because the market has misjudged their true value.

投资不是一场竞赛，而是一场长期的旅程。

Investing is not a race, but a long-term journey.

选股有“15个要点”，其中最关键的一个是：这家公司的产品或服务，在未来几年里有没有“足够大的市场空间”？

Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

判断管理层的“运气”和“能力”是两回事。有些公司运气好碰上了风口，但只有“有能力的管理层”能持续创造好运。

There are two kinds of companies: those that are fortunate because their management is able, and those that are able because they are fortunate.

卖出成长股只有“三个真正正当的理由”：你当初判断错了、基本面变差了、或者找到更好的了——“绝对不包括它涨太多了”。

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never.

当一个行业“热得发烫”的时候，最好冷一下。真正的好机会从来不在聚光灯下，而在“阴影里”。

The hottest sectors are rarely where you find the best long-term investments. Look where others aren't looking.

成长股不是看它“增长了多少”，而是看它增长的“质量”：利润率高不高、资金回不回收、研发投得值不值。

It's not just about how much a company grows, but how profitably it grows and how much capital it takes to produce that growth.

在股市里到处都是这样的人——他们知道一切的价格，却不知道价值。

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

闲聊法是你能做的最好的投资研究。去跟供应商聊天、跟客户聊天、跟前员工聊天、跟竞争对手聊天。在这些闲聊中，你会得到一份比任何券商研报都真实的公司画像。

The scuttlebutt method is the best investment research you can do. Talk to suppliers, customers, former employees, competitors. In these conversations, you'll get a more truthful picture of a company than any broker research report.

如果我问管理层一个问题，他们回答得含糊其辞或闪烁其词，我会立即对这个公司失去兴趣。优秀的管理层从不害怕坦诚讨论问题。回避问题本身就是最响亮的警报。

If I ask management a question and they answer vaguely or evasively, I immediately lose interest in the company. Great management is never afraid to discuss problems candidly. Evasiveness is the loudest alarm.

最佳买入时机不是市场最悲观的时候，而是公司的经营正在从坏转向好的时候。市场需要一段时间才能意识到这种改善，这段时间就是你的超额收益窗口。

The best time to buy isn't when the market is most pessimistic, but when the company's operations are turning from bad to good. The market takes time to recognize this improvement — that gap is your window of excess returns.

不要只看利润率有多高，更要看利润率的稳定性。高利润率如果建立在不稳定的竞争优势上，就是一座即将倾倒的塔。真正的好公司能在一个完整的商业周期中维持高利润率。

Don't just look at how high the profit margin is — look at its stability. A high margin built on unstable competitive advantages is a tower about to fall. Truly great companies maintain high margins across a full business cycle.

研发投入占总收入的比例本身没有意义。关键是研发的效率——同样的钱花出去，带来了多少新产品、多少新增增长。为研发而研发，不如不研发。

R&D spending as a percentage of revenue means nothing by itself. What matters is R&D efficiency — how many new products and incremental growth come from that spending. R&D for R&D's sake is worse than no R&D at all.

我不想要许多平庸的机会，我只想要少数几个杰出的机会。

I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.

如果当初买入时研究工作做得正确，那么卖出的时机几乎永远不会到来。

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never.